Corn                                      Estimated Fund Position

Trends – July Contract

Short Term: Up                 Net Long Futures and Options: 86568

Long Term: Up Change: -10000

Overnight Trade: N -1 @7:30 AM

Yesterday’s supply and demand numbers were far from bearish, but they certainly weren’t bullish enough to create any excitement, so it seems that the market suffered from boredom as much as anything and profit taking ensued. At this point it looks like the July corn is headed to the $4.70 area and if downward momentum builds, possibly $4.53. The export sales pace is still strong enough to support the market, but traders may not be too enthusiastic about buying until we get the stocks report out of the way at the end of the month. Look for a few more days of corrective trade at least.

Wheat                                  Estimated Fund Position

Trends – July Contract

Short Term: Up                 Net Long Futures and Options: -40106

Long Term:Up                   Change: -4000

Overnight Trade: Chicago: N +3 KC: N +2 @7:30 AM

There was nothing to provide any price direction in the report, but the July KW did post an outside day down on the chart. Divergence in the technical indicators and weakness in the corn and beans suggest the wheat will see a corrective break from here. Kansas and Texas crop conditions improved with Kansas now at 37% Good to Excellent and Texas at 28% Good to Excellent, so that may be used as an excuse to sell as well. Look for the July KW to drift down to the $6.85 area.

Soybeans                            Estimated Fund Position

Trends – July Contract

Short Term: Up                 Net Long Futures and Options: 175502

Long Term:Up                   Change: -12000

Overnight Trade: N -1 @7:30 AM

The soybeans posted sharp losses yesterday mostly because the market was due for a correction. The report was friendly enough with the 5 million bushel cut in ending stocks, but that was basically expected and didn’t provide traders with any fresh information. For now, look for the July contract to correct back to the $13.50 area, and then we will go back to watching export sales.

Live Cattle

Trend

Short Term: Up

Long Term: Up

Opening Calls: 10-30 Higher

Live cattle futures closed moderately higher in all but the lead April contract on Monday. Cutout values were sharply higher on the day, with show lists shrinking from week ago levels. Short bought packers and smaller show lists could create some activity earlier in the week than normal. The continued strength in the lean hog market should add additional support to the spring and summer fat cattle market. Open interest in the April contract dropped 13,832 contracts on Monday, with more than half of those moving into deferred positions.

Feeder Cattle

Trends

Short Term: Up

Long Term: Up

Opening Call: Mixed

Feeder cattle futures got support from sharply lower corn and higher deferred live cattle to close with strong triple digit gains on Monday. The cash index jumped .86 to new all-time highs on Monday, lending additional firepower for feeder bulls. Overnight action is narrowly mixed, with corn trading steady to modestly lower. The strong jump in the cash market should provide good underlying support for the futures in weeks to come.