Corn Estimated Fund Position
Short Term: Up Net Long Futures and Options: 118997
Long Term: Up Change: +4000
Overnight Trade: H +6 Z +2 1/2
Opening Calls: 20-30 Lower
The corn supply and demand numbers were not as bullish as expected. Corn yield was raised to 147.2, which will surprise many, and ending stocks were only down 2 million to 846 million. The only other change was a 50 million bushel increase in exports, but today’s export sales report was poor again at 321,500 MT. World corn numbers weren’t friendly either with only a 3 MMT cut in Argentine production and none in Brazil. Expect a very weak opening.
Wheat Estimated Fund Position
Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options: -71205
Long Term: Up Change: +2000
Overnight Trade: Chicago: H +6 KC: H +6 1/2
Opening Calls: 20-40 Lower
Wheat ending stocks came in lower than last month at 870 million, but higher than expected. The wheat market will follow the corn lower anyway, but the higher than expected stocks will add to today’s negativity. There is a good chance that the March KW takes out last week’s low today, which will look very negative on the charts.
Soybeans Estimated Fund Position
Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options: 4419
Long Term: Up Change: -9000
Overnight Trade: H +3 X +3
Opening Calls: 20-30 Lower
The soybean numbers were very negative. Yield was increased by .2 to 41.5 bu/ac. Exports were cut and ending stocks ended up at 275 million, which is very bearish. World numbers didn’t help out much with smaller than expected cuts in the S. American production. The $11.92 support will fail miserably today and traders may start thinking about a move to $11.00 in the March contract. Potential for cuts in S. American production is the only supporting factor right now.
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down
Opening Calls: Mixed
Live cattle futures closed narrowly mixed on Wednesday, with February higher and deferred contracts modestly lower. Cash trade remains non‐existent, with bids and asking prices a good $4‐$5 apart. Cutouts are weakening, with demand for hamburger the one shining spot. Exports are expected to pick back up after the first couple of weeks of the year. Open interest continues to rise in the live cattle, with gains of another 1900 on Wednesday. We expect to see fully steady cash trade by Friday.
Short Term: Up
Long Term: Up
Opening Call: Mixed
Feeder cattle futures closed moderately lower on Wednesday, as traders took some risk off the table ahead of this mornings’ grain report. Cash index levels continue to rise, with the one day average over 151.00 on Wednesday. The seven day average is approaching the 149.00 level. This mornings’ corn report was negative, which should support feeder prices.