Corn                                           Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Down                     Net Long Futures and Options: 280761
Long Term: Up                          Change: +20000
Overnight Trade: N -2 1/2 Z +8 3/4
Opening Calls: Mixed

Planting progress was worse than expected at 13% complete, which supported the December contract overnight and put a great deal more pressure on the bull spreads. Traders are beginning to think that USDA will come out with a sub trend line yield estimate in the May supply and demand report, which would definitely tighten up the new crop supply scenario. In 2008 the new crop led the way higher, I doubt that happens this year, but the new crop could definitely close the gap.

Wheat                                      Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Down                    Net Long Futures and Options: -11406
Long Term: Up                         Change: +4000
Overnight Trade: Chicago: N -3 ¾ KC: N -1/4
Opening Calls: 1-2 Lower

I was a little surprised to see the crop condition ratings decline again in the wheat since there was some moisture in the areas that needed it. I guess that shows just how bad the situation is and how it may be too late for a lot of acres. The crop tour will get under way today, so it will be interesting to see what they have to say. The good wheat will be in the east, so there had better be big numbers there to make up for what they will see in the west.

Soybeans                                 Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Down                    Net Long Futures and Options: 76203
Long Term: Up                         Change: +10000
Overnight Trade: N -5 1/2 X-4 3/4
Opening Calls: 3-5 Lower

It looks like another day of consolidation trade in the soybeans. Soybean planting is slow too, but that doesn’t appear to be helping the bean market. There are ideas that the soybeans will pick up some acreage eventually due to the slow corn planting. Look for the July soybeans to find good support today near the $13.75 area.

Live Cattle
Trend
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down
Opening Calls: 20-40 Lower

Live cattle futures started the week posting triple digit losses out through the February contract. Weak technical indicators and a lack of buyers weighed on the market in light volume. It’s not so much that a glut of cattle is showing up, but a lack of a bullish spark to bring buyers back into the market. We are currently testing the March lows, with those levels needing to hold if we expect any counter seasonal bounce. Our show list for western Kansas is down 12% from week ago levels.

Feeder Cattle
Trends
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down
Opening Call: 40-75 Lower

Feeder cattle futures followed the fats sharply lower on Monday, and are seeing moderate to heavy pressure in overnight trade. Weakness comes after a solid recovery in the middle of last week. Key support for the August feeders rests at last weeks’ low of 132.92. Strength in new crop corn over the past few days is expected to keep a lid on deferred feeder cattle prices.