Schwieterman: Old crop corn exports fall with cancellations

Corn                                                      Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Up                                   Net Long Futures and Options: 150539
Long Term: Up                                    Change: +35000
Overnight Trade: Z -15 @7:15 AM
Opening Calls: 10-15 Lower

Corn export sales were horrible at 19,300 MT of old crop and 134,200 MT of new crop sales. I will point out that the old crop number was so low because of cancellations by “unknown  destinations” and that China was listed as a buyer again. Overnight weakness is mostly due to profit taking ahead of the weekend. There will be a lot of traders talking about the open chart gap between $6.76 and $6.85 ½ on the December chart. We will test the top of the gap at the very least.

Wheat                                                    Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Up                                    Net Long Futures and Options: 4889
Long Term:Up                                      Change: +8000
Overnight Trade: Chicago: Z-24 KC: Z -26 @7:15 AM
Opening Calls: 20-30 Lower

Wheat export sales were solid at 418,900 MT. This isn’t enough to get traders excited, but it is enough to avoid a selloff. The wheat is following the corn lower this morning due to profit taking and the fact that the wheat fundamentals still aren’t good enough to warrant independent strength. It is interesting to note that the December KW stalled out at the 78% retracement. Look for a move down to $8.25 in the December KW.

Soybeans                                            Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Up                                  Net Long Futures and Options: 231820
Long Term:Up                                    Change: +18000
Overnight Trade: X -15 @7:15 AM
Opening Calls: 10-20 Lower

Soybean export sales were great at 298,700 MT of old crop and 1.46 MMT of new crop sales. There was also a daily announcement of 120,000 MT of old crop soybeans to China. USDA is underestimating old crop sales and therefore overestimating both old crop and new crop ending stocks. The weather has to improve soon to avoid all time highs in the market. Right now it is the markets job to slow demand.

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