Corn Estimated Fund Position
Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options: 127527
Long Term: Down Change: -25000
Overnight Trade: U +16 3/4 Z +12 1/2
Opening Calls: 10-20 Higher
The corn made a strong short covering bounce on good volume overnight. There is still persistent talk of Chinese corn purchases, which if confirmed, would be very supportive to the corn market. In the short run, however, the forecasts aren’t threatening, crop conditions will likely be steady, and it is highly likely that we will see follow through selling from Friday’s limit lower move. The market is definitely due for a bounce, but it may be short lived if we don’t see some fresh bullish news.
Wheat Estimated Fund Position
Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options: -49107
Long Term: Down Change: +2000
Overnight Trade: Chicago: N +21 1/2 KC: N +17 1/2
Opening Calls: 15-20 Higher
The bounce in the wheat is a bit more meaningful than the bounce in the corn since the wheat rejected Friday’s early weakness and managed a positive close. A short covering rally in the September KW could easily take that market back to the $8.00 area in short order. Some fresh export news would be very helpful, but right now watch the French wheat market for direction.
Soybeans Estimated Fund Position
Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options: 22001
Long Term: Down Change: +6000
Overnight Trade: N +11 1/2 X+11 3/4
Opening Calls: 10-15 Higher
The November soybeans continue to consolidate just above the $12.85 area. It wouldn’t be much of a surprise to see the November beans move back up to the top of the trading range at the $14.00 area since acreage is expected to be down and crop condition ratings aren’t suggesting record yields. Keep in mind that the November soybeans were positive last week despite the meltdown in the other markets.