Corn Estimated Fund Position
Short Term:Down Net Long Futures and Options: 167539
Long Term: Down Change: -7000
Overnight Trade: H -1 @7:30 AM
The corn market had every opportunity to break yesterday and fall to the November low, but it didn’t. So, with an oversold market and the downward momentum waning, today we should look for the market to consolidate and then begin to correct higher later this week. The news hasn’t changed in weeks and yesterday’s report provided no new information, so the corn market should continue to trade in the same broad trading range we have been stuck in since late September.
Wheat Estimated Fund Position
Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options: -34704
Long Term: Down Change: -10000
Overnight Trade: Chicago: H -2 KC: H -2 @7:30 AM
The wheat market, especially in Chicago, is falling out of the bottom of the trading range. The charts don’t look good and right now the poor export sales pace is to blame. Even the new crop July KW contract looks weak after yesterday’s trend line support failure. Moisture prospects are poor, which should keep support under the Kansas City wheat, but it will probably take fresh demand news to turn this market around.
Soybeans Estimated Fund Position
Short Term: Up Net Long Futures and Options: 77661
Long Term: Down Change: -5000
Overnight Trade: F-10 @7:30 AM
The soybean market is still correcting by trading sideways. Demand is still very strong for soybeans and the products, which is keeping the market from breaking very far. There is already an assumption that USDA will have to raise the soybean export estimate in the January report, which will draw down the ending stocks even further. Look for directionless trade today, but the January soybeans will soon begin a move to $15.35.
Short Term: Up
Long Term: Up
Opening Calls: Mixed
Live cattle futures finished sharply higher on Tuesday. Boosted by technical buying and good strength in boxed beef prices, the market posted strong triple digit gains out thru the August timeframe. Overnight trade is adding to gains in the front four months. Fifteen new deliveries were posted against the December contract, with all coming in Syracuse. The sharply higher beef prices are finding pretty good demand, which should keep a floor under the live cattle. Technical indicators have turned up as well.
Short Term: Up
Long Term: Up
Opening Call: Mixed
Feeder cattle futures had a monster day on Tuesday, with gains of more than 2.00 in the first 6 trading months. January feeders posted their highest trade since the middle of July. Technical indicators are higher across the board, suggesting that buyers will be there for any corrections in the market. Cash trade is rising, but is far enough behind futures that an overbought correction may be in order.