Corn Estimated Fund Position
Short Term: Up Net Long Futures and Options: 225605
Long Term: Up Change: -16000
Overnight Trade: Z+5 @7:30 AM
The corn market didn’t see follow through selling overnight despite yesterday’s poor close. The $7.80 area has held the market for quite a while and there is still fear of smaller production estimates in the future and lower prices will only increase demand. We are not see many “better than expected” comments this year which will keep fears of lower yields alive. Plan on a retest of yesterday’s low at some point today or tomorrow. If it holds again we will start grinding sideways/higher once again.
Wheat Estimated Fund Position
Short Term: Up Net Long Futures and Options: 15327
Long Term:Up Change: -7000
Overnight Trade: Chicago: Z +6 KC: Z+5 @7:30 AM
The wheat market is still stuck in a sideways pattern. The December KW broke out of the top of the wedge formation Friday and bottom on Monday. There was no follow through selling overnight, which is just another indication that this market is not going to pick a direction. It looks like we should plan on the December KW staying within 30 cents of the $9.20 level for a few more days.
Soybeans Estimated Fund Position
Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options: 204985
Long Term:Up Change: -11000
Overnight Trade: Z+7 @7:30 AM
Crop condition ratings improved slightly to 30% Good to Excellent, which will keep analysts thinking that the recent weather has stabilized the crop. At the same time, demand has been excellent and we really can’t stand to have good demand with the current supply situation. We seem to have reached an equilibrium price and I plan on the November soybeans staying in the $16.00 - $16.50 area until the news changes. Plan on sideways trade.
Short Term: Up
Long Term: Up
Opening Calls: 20-40 Higher
Live cattle futures closed moderately to sharply higher on Monday, led gains of 1.22 in the August contract. Boxed beef prices continue to support, along with smaller show lists being reported in all regions. The pattern in the December cattle since late June has been one of higher highs and higher lows. We don’t see any near term reason for that to change. Outside markets are supportive overnight, with higher equities and a modestly lower Dollar.
Short Term: Up
Long Term: Down
Opening Call: 20-50 Higher
Feeder cattle futures posted big gains on Monday, with September closing a nickel off of limit up levels. The strength in feeders is a result of improved cash and stuttering corn prices. Short term chart patterns have turned higher after Monday’s action. Rising equity markets have a tendency to benefit livestock markets. Corn prices are firmer in overnight trade, which may cap rally efforts in the feeders. Charts would suggest good support will be found on any reasonable sell off.