The 2011/12 U.S. sorghum crop is projected to be 335 million bushels, up from 214 million in 2011/12. Yields are expected to return to normal levels, and the March 30 Prospective Planting report indicates planted acreage is expected to increase by 469,000 acres to 5.95 million. The projected yield is up 10.4 bushels from 2011/12.
Sorghum beginning stocks for 2012/13 are forecast at 26.9 million bushels, down 0.6 million. Total supply for 2012/13 is projected to be 362 million bushels, up from 242 million in 2011/12, due to higher production levels.
Total sorghum use is expected to surge by 105 million bushels for 2012/13. Exports are projected 80 million bushels higher at 140 million, and feed and residual is projected 25 million higher at 90 million. FSI use is projected unchanged at 90 million bushels.
Ending sorghum stocks are projected at 42 million bushels for 2012/13, an increase of 15 million over the 2011/12 projection of 27 million bushels. The 2012/13 season-average farm price is projected at $3.85 to $4.65 per bushel, compared with the record $5.85 to $6.15 per bushel projected for 2011/12.
Barley Production Advances in 2012/13
The 2012/13 U.S. barley crop is projected at 200 million bushels, up from last season’s 156 million due to higher acreage moderated by slightly lower expected yields. Planted acreage for 2012/13 is projected at 3.3 million acres, 774,000 acres higher than the 2.6 million in 2011/12. Harvested acres are projected 661,000 higher than in 2011/12. Barley planted area is from the Prospective Plantings report, and harvested area is based on the 2007-11 average relationship between harvested and planted area. The barley yield is based on the 1960-2011 trend, adjusted for rounding in production.
Barley beginning stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 45.1 million bushels, half the level of a year earlier. Imports for 2012/13 are increased by 5 millon bushels due to projected increased supplies in Canada. Total supply is 260 million bushels, just 5 million greater year-to-year.
Feed and residual use for 2012/13 is projected down by 10 million bushels to 30 million. FSI is unchanged at 160 million bushels. With projected exports holding steady at 10 million bushels, total use is down by 10 million to a projected 200 million bushels.
Ending stocks for barley in 2012/13 are projected at 60 million bushels, 15 million over 2011/12. Prices received by farmers for barley are expected to average $5.10 to $6.10 per bushel, compared with the 2011/12 average price projection of $5.30 per bushel.