U.S. corn exports for 2010/11 are forecast down 2.0 million tons to 46.0 million (down 50 million bushels to 1.825 billion for the local marketing year). The pace of export sales and shipments has fallen short of expectations in recent months as U.S. corn prices have not been competitive with feed-quality wheat, and other exporters have shipped aggressively. The 2010/11 forecast is down 7 percent from the previous year. Census exports for October-June reached 34.1 million tons, down 5 percent from the previous year. July export inspections were only 3.9 million tons, down 14 percent from a year ago. Moreover, as of August 4, outstanding export sales reached only 5.7 million tons, down 23 percent from the same week last year. With U.S. corn in Southern States damaged by drought, less new-crop corn than usual is likely to be available for shipment in September 2011.
Partly offsetting the drop in U.S. export prospects for 2010/11 are increased exports forecast based on the recent pace of shipments for Argentina, up 0.5 million tons; India, up 0.4 million; South Africa, up 0.3 million; Canada, up 0.2 million; and Thailand, up 0.05 million. Import forecast adjustments based on the pace of recent shipments include Japan, down 0.6 million tons; Vietnam, down 0.3 million; Thailand, down 0.1 million; Indonesia, up 0.5 million; Turkey, up 0.2 million; and the United States and Kenya, up by smaller amounts.