Forecast U.S. feed grain beginning stocks in 2012/13 are raised 3.0 million tons from last month but are down 3.5 million tons from the previous year, an 11-percent reduction. U.S. feed grain production is forecast at 285.9 million metric tons, 57.9 million below last month and 37.7 million below the 2011/12 estimate. Compared with volumes in 2011/12, production is down sharply for corn but up for sorghum, barley, and oats. This month saw sharp declines in projected production for corn and sorghum and slight gains for barley and oats. Feed grain supply is projected at 318.7 million metric tons this month, 53.5 million short of last month’s projection and 39.7 million below 2011/12.

Total 2012/13 feed grain use is projected 39.4 million metric tons lower from last month and 30.2 million short of 2011/12. This month’s reduction reflects lower estimates for feed and residual disappearance; food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use; and exports for corn and sorghum due to rationing on higher prices. Sharply lower forecast use for fuel ethanol is accompanied by declines in most other FSI categories. FSI is projected at 155.1 million metric tons in 2012/13, compared with 169.0 million in 2011/12. Exports are forecast at 35.8 million metric tons, down 8.6 million from the previous estimate and 5.2 million below last season.

U.S. feed grain supply prospects plunge

The U.S. Census Bureau issued revised numbers for calendar 2011, affecting trade estimates this month for corn and sorghum in 2010/11 and for barley and oats in 2011/12. Imports are raised slightly for 2010/11 and 2011/12 and are projected up 1.4 tons for 2012/13, with notable increases for corn and barley. Marketing year exports for feed grains in 2010/11 are raised slightly to 50.7 million metric tons, mostly reflecting a large upward revision for sorghum shipments. In 2011/12, estimated exports are raised for barley and lowered for oats based on the latest Census data, as the marketing year is over. Sorghum and corn export forecasts (the 2011/12 marketing year ends at the end of August) are also adjusted based on the pace of shipments, with corn down 10 times as much as sorghum is increased. Feed grain exports for 2011/12 are projected 1.1 million metric tons lower to 41.0 million. Ending stocks for 2011/12 are up 3.0 million metric tons to 28.7 million. Exports projected for 2012/13 are lowered 8.6 million metric tons to 35.8 million, as tight supplies and high prices affect the export market.

When converted to a September – August marketing year, feed and residual use for the four feed grains plus wheat in 2012/13 is projected to total 113.1 million tons, down from 132.2 million last month and down 12 percent from the 2011/12 forecast of 128.0 million. Corn is estimated to account for 92 percent of total feed and residual use in 2012/13, up from 90 percent in 2011/12.

U.S. feed grain supply prospects plunge

Projected grain-consuming animal units (GCAUs) for 2012/13 are lower than last month at 92.1 million. Estimated GCAUs for 2011/12 are also lower on the month at 93.4 million compared with July’s estimate of 93.7 million. For 2012/13, feed and residual use per animal unit is projected at 1.23 tons, down from last month’s 1.42 tons due to lower cattle carcass weights and lower hog numbers and the impact of tight feed supplies and higher prices.