Global coarse grain use is forecast up 2.3 million tons this month to 1,255.5 million, a modest increase. While U.S. coarse grain use is projected higher, foreign disappearance is down 1.3 million tons to 940.8 million. Foreign corn use is projected down 1.7 million tons to 669.6 million, millet use is cut 0.4 million tons to 30.0 million, sorghum use is reduced 0.3 million to 57.0 million, and oats use is trimmed 0.2 million to 20.1 million. However, projected 2014/15 foreign barley use is raised 1.2 million tons to 134.0 million.
China’s 2014/15 corn use is forecast down 2.0 million tons to 220.0 million, with the reduction in projected feed use. The wheat-to-corn price ratios in China are expected to encourage a shift to feeding more wheat.
Ukraine’s coarse grain feed and residual use is reduced 0.8 million tons, with corn feed use cut 1.0 million tons to 8.5 million, but barley feed use is increased 0.2 million tons to 4.0 million.
India’s coarse grain projected use is reduced 0.6 million tons to 37.2 million. Millet use is cut 0.4 million tons due to reduced production, with a decline of 0.3 million in food, seed, and industrial use (FSI) and 0.1 million in feed. India’s corn exports in 2013/14 are increased this month, trimming 2014/15 beginning stocks and resulting in a 0.2-million-ton decline in projected corn feeding.
Japan’s 2014/15 corn feed use is reduced 0.3 million tons this month, reflecting sluggish meat production. Canada’s projected coarse grain use is down 0.3 million tons, with a decline of 0.2 million for corn. Morocco’s 2014/15 barley feed use is trimmed 0.2 million tons, with growth from a reduced base estimated for 2013/14.
EU 2014/15 coarse grain use is forecast up 1.1 million tons this month to 159.0 million. EU corn feed is boosted 1.0 million tons, with a sharp increase in supplies, and barley food and industrial use is increased 0.2 million, but oats feed is trimmed 0.1 million. Argentina’s coarse grain use is increased 0.3 million tons, with corn use up 2.0 million and sorghum feed use up 0.2 million but partly offset by a 0.1-million-ton reduction in sorghum FSI use.
Other country changes are smaller and mostly offsetting. However, world coarse grain disappearance also reflects the difference between global exports and imports, with exports normally bigger than imports, partly due to exporters in the USDA database shipping to destinations not included in the database. For most countries, imports are based on exporters’ data, but for some countries it is judged that importers’ data are a more accurate measure of actual imports. Trans-shipments and sales of cargoes in transit make destinations hard to track. For example, for Vietnam, exporters’ data recently are showing more corn shipped to Vietnam than has been reported by Vietnam as its actual destination. One of the places the data discrepancies appear is in the “unaccounted” line in imports in the FAS Grain Circular trade tables. This month, the 2013/14 unaccounted imports increased 1.7 million tons to 5.9 million, while 2014/15 unaccounted imports are projected up 1.6 million to 5.4 million.
For the full report, click here.
Source: USDA Feed Outlook Report