Closing the gap in agricultural production

Global agricultural production needs to continue growing at a significant pace to keep up with food needs, according to the 2011 Global Agricultural Productivity Report from the Global Harvest Initiative.

The annual GAP report, developed with input from the Farm Foundation, the United States Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service and other agricultural experts, measures ongoing progress in sustainably doubling agricultural output in the next 40 years.

The report’s authors note there are here are nearly one billion people today who do not have access to a safe and adequate food supply. Around 20 percent of the world’s population lives on less than $1.25 per day and many of them are children who suffer from severe long-term health problems resulting from inadequate nutrition.

The United Nations projects world populations will grow from about seven billion today to more than 9 billion by 2050, and most of that growth will occur in areas featuring low agricultural productivity. Sub-Saharan Africa will account for 49 percent of the population growth while Asia accounts for 41 percent. Poor people in these regions spend nearly 80 percent of their incomes on food.

Other key points in the report include:

• A protein-based diets increase in Asia and Africa, the total supply of food measured in kilocalories for the region will need to increase by more than 170 percent.
• Consumption of staple foods like roots, tubers and cereals will increase at a slower rate than total caloric intake, while consumption of meat—currently about 20 pounds per person per year—is expected to nearly double by 2050.
• These trends indicate the need for a substantial increase in food production, as well as improvements in both domestic agricultural production patterns and trade flows.
• By 2050, a larger fraction of agricultural production will need to move through trade because the world’s population distribution by region is not the same as the distribution of arable land. Regions like North America, South America, Europe and Oceania have a higher proportion of arable land and will continue to be a source of agricultural output for other regions, including Asia.
• Today more than 50 percent of the world’s population lives in urban areas. By 2050, that proportion will increase to 70 percent.
• In order to reduce the environmental footprint of agriculture, the challenges of meeting the food, feed, fiber, energy and industrial needs of a growing world must be accomplished sustainably, primarily by utilizing existing land and natural resources to increase production.

GHI has developed a “GAP Index,” which measures the difference between the current rate of growth in agricultural productivity and the pace required to meet future needs. To meet global food needs by 2050, according to the report, “total factor productivity” (TFP) will need to grow at an annual global rate of 1.75 percent.

In 2010, GHI reported that the global TFP growth rate stood at 1.4 percent annually, 25 percent below the target. This year’s updated GAP Index, which includes an additional year of data and other information, shows that the TFP growth rate increasing at a 1.74 percent. The report notes that TFP growth rates will fluctuate year to year, reflecting changing yields, weather effects, disease and other factors.

While the updated TFP rate is encouraging, the authors say a bigger gap remains in Sub-Saharan Africa, where TFP growth averages approximately 0.85 percent, while the region undergoes rapid population growth.

The Global Harvest Initiative has identified five policy areas that foster agricultural development to help close the global productivity gap:

1. Improving agricultural research funding, structure and collaboration.
2. Removing barriers to global and regional trade in agriculture.
3. Strengthening and streamlining development assistance programs.
4. Embracing science-based technologies.
5. Enhancing private-sector involvement in agricultural and rural infrastructure development.

Read the full 2011 GAP Report.