Domestic feed grain supplies projected lower for 2012-13

The USDA reported in its July issue of their Feed Outlook report that U.S. feed grain supplies for 2012/13 are projected sharply lower for July, reflecting reduced yields for corn due to persistent and extreme hot, dry weather across the central and Eastern Corn Belt in June and extreme heat from the Central Plains to the Ohio River Valley in late June and early July.

U.S. feed grain production for 2012/13 is projected at 343.8 million tons, down 45.9 million from a month ago but up 20.3 million tons from the 2011/12 estimate. The June 29 Acreage report showed planted acreage increased 1 percent relative to intentions for corn and also increased for barley and sorghum, but decreased for oats. Corn beginning stocks are raised 52 million bushels, reflecting changes in 2011/12 imports and exports. Corn production for 2012/13 is projected 1,820 million bushels lower due to the rapid deterioration of the crop since early June.

The first survey-based production forecast for barley in the July 11 Crop Production report raises output 17 million bushels from the June projection, as higher harvested acreage more than offsets a decrease in yield.

Barley beginning stocks are increased 8 million bushels due to decreased 2011/12 feed and residual use revealed by the June 1 stocks estimate.

The first survey-based production forecast for oats is 10 million bushels lower than the June projection, reflecting a decrease in projected harvested acres and expected lower yield. Oat imports are projected down 5 million bushels this month, with a smaller crop expected in Canada. Imports would be the same as in 2011/12. USDA will make its first survey-based forecasts for 2012 corn and sorghum production in the August 10 Crop Production report.

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