Feedlot inventories expected to continue lower

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Analysts predict the October Cattle on Feed numbers, originally expected to be released by the USDA this Friday, to show cattle inventories lower again compared to the previous year, falling by a larger percentage than the previous month.

According to a prediction released by Allendale, Inc., the October 1 cattle inventory will be 7.6% smaller than a year earlier. The decline is steeper than the USDA data from the previous month which showed inventories were 7.2% below the same month a year earlier.

Allendale says placements are expected to be 1.2% lower than October 1 data from 2012, which is a marginal decline to 2012 when data was 17% lower than the five-year average at the time. Allendale notes September 2012 was the lowest September of any year since the data series began in 1996.

While some analysts expect lower placements as more producers keep cattle grazing on pastures, other analysts polled by Reuters expect lower corn values to motivate feedlot operators to purchase more young cattle, pushing September placements higher.

Marketings are predicted to increase, up 3% above this same period last year with help from an extra weekday and one less Saturday in September 2013 verses 2012.

U.S. Commodities analyst Don Roose told Reuters the Cattle on Feed report may not be released Friday. Even though the furlough has ended, it may take four or five days for reports to return.

For more market analysis, visit Allendale-inc.com.



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