Schwieterman: Corn higher as dryness persists in Corn Belt

Corn                                                              Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Up                                           Net Long Futures and Options: 115539
Long Term: Up                                            Change: +17000
Overnight Trade: @7:15 AM
Opening Calls: 10-15 Higher

It is still hot and dry in the Corn Belt so the corn market is still moving higher. There are some cooler temperatures in the extended forecast that will provide some hope, but at the moment the forecast still calls for below normal precipitation. Crop condition ratings will decline Monday and we will see new contract highs today.

Wheat                                                          Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Up                                          Net Long Futures and Options: -3111
Long Term:Up                                            Change: +7000
Overnight Trade: Chicago: KC: Z @7:15 AM
Opening Calls: 10-15 Higher

Wheat will continue to follow the corn. I still don’t think the wheat fundamentals are particularly bullish, but with the crop losses we are looking at in the corn, USDA is probably underestimating US wheat demand and there is no reason to expect higher wheat acreage this fall. With the move through the 62% retracement in the December KW the next upside objective is now $8.55.

Soybeans                                                      Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Up                                            Net Long Futures and Options: 213820
Long Term:Up                                              Change: +9000
Overnight Trade: @7:15 AM
Opening Calls: 20-30 Higher

The soybeans are just like the corn. The weather is shrinking the crop and USDA is overestimating the yield. One other thing that the beans have going for them is that there has been good demand news recently. We will set a record for exports in the new crop year, which is very supportive. The poor Indian monsoon will also fuel the bull market. November beans will be over $15.00 soon.

1. UK beef study: Birth/weaning weight
2. Early preparation key to a good calving season
3. Oil gains moderately, trading sluggish ahead of Fed
4. House cafeterias to discontinue "Meatless Mondays"
5. Crude oil expected to peak and cost of electricity to go down
6. Ag markets mixed again Tuesday

1. 3,000 pounds of copper wire stolen from Oklahoma ranch
2. Will Smith dethroned in latest Peterson Farm Bros. parody
3. Changes in U.S.-Mexican cattle and beef trade
4. Experts weigh in on lowest beef supply in 60 years
5. Peterson Brothers: What summer vacation?
6. Pasture and range conditions improve

1. COOL isn’t working
2. NIAA releases white paper on FMD preparedness
3. Feedyard margins a train wreck, packers cozy
4. Finding the comedy in ag-gag
5. Vilsack: A bill to grow local, regional markets
6. Expert offers tips to reduce hay-drying time