U.S. projected to be highly competitive, wheat exports up

According to the USDA's Wheat Outlook report, U.S wheat exports for the 2012/13 July-June international trade year are projected to increase 4.0 million tons or 14.5 percent from 2011/12 to 31.5 million tons.

The 2012/13 June-May local marketing year exports are projected up125 million bushels to 1,150million. The increase reflects substantial growth in wheat supplies, and lower competition in world trade, with projected decreases in wheat exports by some of the main U.S. competitors–Australia, Argentina, EU-27, Russia, and Ukraine.

The United States will also have additional exports opportunities in June- August, before EU-27 and FSU-12 harvests become available for export.

Wheat Trade for 2011/12 Is Up This Month
Additional trade data have become available as the 2011/12 wheat international marketing year is entering its last 2 months. Several countries’ export forecasts were adjusted, resulting in a trade increase of about 2.0 million tons. Exports for Australia, Russia, and Kazakhstan are up 0.5 million tons each, to 21.5, 21, and 9.5 million, respectively, reflecting the strong pace of shipments.

Argentine wheat exports are up 0.3 million tons to 10.5 million, also based on pace and confirmed exports to North Africa and EU-27. Partly offsetting are 0.5-million-ton declines in 2011/12 exports for EU-27 and Canada. Smaller offsetting changes are made for Cote d’Ivoire, Croatia, Egypt, El Salvador, Honduras, Hong Kong, South Korea, Mexico, and Tunisia. The U.S. export forecast increased 0.7 million tons to 27.5 million, based on recent shipments and expectations of lower competition during June 2011.

June-May local marketing year forecast for 2011/12 U.S. exports is up 25 million bushels this month at 1,025 million bushels, as the pace of recent shipments supports an increase.

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