This month’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, released Sept 11, increases previous estimates of total U.S. meat production for 2009, based on higher pork and broiler production more than offsetting lower beef production.
The USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board raised its estimate of pork production due to higher third-quarter slaughter at significantly higher weights due to favorable summer weather. Lower corn prices, the agency says, will encourage increased weights through the fall. The broiler production forecast is also raised based on higher third-quarter slaughter, while the agency reduced its estimate of beef production due to lower expected cow slaughter.
The agency also has increased its estimates for next year’s meat production from last month. Higher feedlot placements in late 2009 and early 2010 result in higher beef production, according to the report, while lower prices for corn will support increased broiler meat production and slightly higher hog weights.
USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report will be released on September 25 and provide indications of the inventory and sows farrowing moving into 2010.
Red meat export forecasts for 2009 and 2010 are unchanged from last month but estimates for the second quarter of 2009 are adjusted to reflect June trade data. Broiler exports for 2009 are raised reflecting higher-than-expected shipments during July.
Cattle, hog, broiler, and turkey price forecasts are lowered for 2009. Weak demand continues to pressure prices. Hog prices are forecast to remain under pressure during 2010, resulting in lower price forecasts. The 2010 price forecast for cattle is lowered for the first quarter; broiler and turkey forecasts are unchanged.
USDA has predicted a 13-billion-bushel corn crop this fall, potentially the second-largest ever. Domestic corn use and exports are also likely to increase. The report lowered its estimated 2009-2020 marketing-year average farm price to $3.05 to $3.65 per bushel, compared with $3.10 to $3.90 per bushel last month.
The full report is available from USDA.