CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--Early-week buying caution as traders study outside markets stir mixed Chicago Mercantile Exchange hogs calls for Monday.

Persistent euro zone worries weigh on Dow Jones Industrial Average futures which hog traders fear could damage consumer demand for high-end pork cuts. Also the dollar's overnight jump may lead to reduced U.S. pork export sales.

Fundamentally, lean hogs also have Friday's $0.23 per hundredweight wholesale pork price dip and steady-to-lower cash hog price expectations working against them.

By the same token, spot-June and nearby-July remain undervalued compared with CME's lean hog index which might stir speculative buying into potental market breaks.

And, analsyts viewed Friday's U.S. Department of Agriculture monthly cold storage report total pork stocks figure mildly supportive for futures Monday. The data revealed the largest one-month pork inventory drawdown ever for the month of April partly because of reduced year-over-year hog slaughters.

Technically, June is perched atop the 81.33-cents 100-day moving average support level. July is between 81.09 100-day and 83.74 10-day moving average support and resistance boundaries. A flat-to-firm CME pork belly start is expected based on Friday's steady fresh belly quote at $120 per hundredweight. Additionally, USDA's April belly storage result Friday is considered "friendly" for futures. The data showed a 9-million pound inventory decline last moth versus a usual 5-million historical gain. No belly deliveries were reported by CME Friday against the May contract that will expire Tuesday.

Cattle Complex

CME live cattle's open may vary featuring participants factoring in Friday's U.S. cattle report while considering futures' bullish price discounts based on last week's lower cash cattle returns.

Most analysts and traders viewed the federal government's monthly cattle-on-feed report outcome Friday as neutral because the data came in close to trade expectations.

However, a CME live cattle trader said that because futures "lost a lot of ground" in recent weeks due to periodic fiancial market setbacks and underperforming cash cattle prices, the report's lack of "bad news" could become a positive live cattle market influence.

On the cash front, spot-June and nearby-August maintain their bullish price discounts to fed cattle that last week brought mostly $96 to $98 per hundredweight. Cash cattle the week before sold for mostly $100.

Furthermore, diminished wholesale beef buying interest, this week's cash cattle price uncertainty and broader financial market nervousness may initially sideline some traders who want to bet on possible futures advances.

Nevertheless, June and August are bullishly undervalued given their 26% and 30% Relative Strength Index technical indicators. A contract's RSI of 30% or less means that month has become somewhat oversold and subject to an upward adjustment.

Charts also show June under the 91.58-cents 100-day moving average resistance ceiling while August is over its 90.38-cents 100-day moving average support floor.

A firm CME feeder cattle open is anticipated due to possible short-covering and futures' bullish price discounts to CME's feeder cattle index.

Spot-May could move within a narrow trading range ahead of its May 27 expiration date.

(To access the daily livestock market data recap report, keyword search for "Livestock Market Fundamental Data Recap.")


-By Theopolis Waters; Dow Jones Newswires; 312-347-4965; theopolis.waters@dowjones.com