In this month’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, the USDA projects total U.S. meat production for 2009 to increase as higher pork production more than offsets lower beef and turkey production.

Pork production is raised mainly due to higher third-quarter slaughter and significantly higher weights due to favorable summer weather. The beef production forecast is reduced on lower expected cow slaughter.   The turkey production forecast is reduced on slightly lower third-quarter output.  Broiler production is unchanged. 

For 2010, the forecast changes, with beef production rising due to larger feedlot placements in 2009, but pork and turkey production declining enough to offset the increase, resulting in lower total production.   

The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, released on September 25, indicated producers plan to farrow fewer sows during the remainder of 2009 and into 2010, which, coupled with fewer imports of hogs from Canada results in a lower production forecast.  Turkey hatchery data indicates a slower expansion in production during 2010.  The broiler production forecast is unchanged from last month.

Red meat and poultry export forecasts for 2009 and 2010 are mostly unchanged from last month. Turkey exports are raised for 2009.  Import forecasts for beef for both 2009 and 2010 are reduced reflecting lower expected beef supplies in Oceania. Pork import forecasts are raised slightly for 2009.

Price forecasts for cattle, hogs, broilers, and turkeys are lowered for fourth-quarter 2009.  Weak demand and large supplies of meat continue to pressure prices.  Prices are expected to remain under pressure into next year and 2010 forecasts are reduced from last month.  The egg price forecast is unchanged for fourth-quarter 2009 and throughout 2010.

The full report is available online