U.S. feed grain supplies for 2009/10 are projected higher this month with sharply higher forecast corn production more than offsetting a reduction in carryin as 2008/09 corn exports are raised 50 million bushels. Corn production for 2009/10 is projected at 12.8 billion bushels, up 471 million as higher forecast yields more than offset a small reduction in harvested area as updated from the June 30 Acreage report. U.S. corn supplies are projected at a record 14.5 billion bushels, up 134 million from the previous record in 2007/08.
Corn use for 2009/10 is projected higher with rising supplies and lower expected prices. Despite reduced prospects for livestock production, feed and residual use is raised 100 million bushels with the higher yield and production expected to add to residual loss. Food, seed, and industrial use is raised 100 million bushels with higher expected use for ethanol supported by favorable ethanol producer returns and strong incentives for ethanol blending. Exports are projected 150 million bushels higher reflecting reduced foreign production prospects and stronger expected import demand from Mexico and Taiwan.
Ending stocks are projected up 71 million bushels with higher expected use partly offsetting the increase in production. The 2009/10 marketing-year average farm price is projected at $3.10 to $3.90 per bushel, down 25 cents on both ends of the range. The marketing-year average reflects higher prices for corn sold for forward delivery over the past several months ahead of the sharp downturn in futures and cash market prices since early June.
Other feed grain changes include slightly higher 2009/10 production forecasts for sorghum, barley, and oats, as well as minor revisions to 2007/08 and 2008/09 imports and exports based on the latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Census. Oats imports are projected 15 million bushels lower with reduced crop prospects in Canada. As a result, projected feed and residual use for oats is lowered 10 million bushels.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2009/10 are projected 8.3 million tons higher this month. Rising production prospects for U.S. corn, Ukraine barley, India sorghum, and EU-27 rye and mixed grains are partly offset by reductions in expected coarse grain output elsewhere. Corn production prospects are reduced for Mexico, Russia, South Africa, Ukraine, and EU-27. Barley production is lowered for Turkey, Canada, and EU-27.
World coarse grain imports and exports are both projected higher for 2009/10 mostly reflecting higher expected corn exports, up 2.6 million tons this month. Corn imports are raised 1.5 million tons for Mexico and 0.3 million tons for Taiwan. The 3.8-million-ton increase for U.S. corn exports is partly offset by a 0.5-million-ton reduction each for South Africa and Ukraine, and a 0.2-million-ton reduction for Russia. Barley exports are raised 0.4 million tons with a 1.5-million-ton increase for Ukraine, partly offset by smaller reductions for Australia, Canada, EU-27, and Kazakhstan. Oats exports are cut 0.2 million tons with a reduction in Canada. Global coarse grain feeding is raised 1.7 million tons as increased U.S. corn feed and residual use and higher barley feeding in Australia is partly offset by reduced corn feeding in Russia and reduced barley and oats feeding in Canada. Global coarse grain ending stocks are projected higher, mostly reflecting a 2.3-million-ton increase in corn stocks.