No changes are made this month to the 2012-2013 and 2013-2014 U.S. barley supply-and-demand estimates. Price estimates for the 2012-2013 crop year are unchanged, with a season-average price of $6.40 per bushel.
The 2013-2014 farm price range is raised $0.05 per bushel on each end to $5.35 to $6.35 per bushel as the increase in corn prices boost price prospects for feed barley. The effect of planting delays in North Dakota and Minnesota on acreage and production forecasts will be examined following the release of the June 28 Acreage report, and any resulting adjustments will be reflected in ERS’s July Feed Outlook.
The most recent Crop Progressreport indicates that barley planting is 68 percent complete in North Dakota (compared with the 5-year average of 92 percent) and 89 percent complete in Minnesota (compared with the 5-year average of 99 percent). Factors including prolonged rainfall, saturated fields, and cool temperatures have prevented seeding and postponed fieldwork, especially in the northeastern portions of North Dakota and central sections of Minnesota.
On acres that have been planted, flooding and soil crusting are reported to be inhibiting emergence on some acres. In North Dakota, just 48 percent of the barley crop is reported to have emerged, relative to the 5-year average of 83 percent. Perhaps in response to concerns about malt barley availability and the protein content of the harvested malt crop, a limited number of new malting barley contracts are reported to have become available in North Dakota.
Despite delayed planting and emergence in several barley-producing States, collectively, the barley crop is in similar condition to the previous year’s crop, with 63 percent reported to be in good or excellent condition, compared with 64 percent at the same time in 2012.