WASDE: USDA reduces 2012 beef production forecast, exports higher

The 2012 forecast of total red meat and poultry production is reduced from last month. Beef production is reduced due to slightly lower cattle slaughter during the year and slower growth in carcass weights. For 2011, beef and broiler production forecasts are reduced, but pork and turkey production is increased.

The beef import forecast is raised slightly for 2011. Beef export forecasts for 2011 and 2012 are raised slightly as strong global beef demand supports continued gains in U.S. exports to a number of Asian markets. Small changes are made to U.S. pork imports for 2011 and 2012 and pork exports for 2011. Broiler exports are raised for 2011 and 2012 on strong demand in a number of countries and a relatively weak dollar.

Cattle prices are forecast higher for the remainder of 2011 and through 2012. Strong demand is expected to carry into next year along with tight cattle supplies. Hog prices are raised for 2011 and 2012 on demand strength and support from lower beef and broiler production. Broiler prices are lowered for the last quarter of 2011 and the first quarter of 2012 as weakness in domestic demand and current overhanging supplies pressure prices.