Corn                                    Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Down             Net Long Futures and Options: 9003
Long Term: Down             Change: -3000
Overnight Trade: N -1 1/4 Z -1 1/2
Opening Calls: 1-2 Lower


The corn market is in day number four of consolidation. The corn posted an outside day on the charts yesterday, but closed in the middle of the range, which is neither bullish, nor bearish. The fact that the market is oversold and that the market didn’t push lower is a good indication that the market needs to see a correction. Export sales were excellent with 1.35 MMT of old crop and 239,000 MT of new crop sales.

Wheat                               Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Down           Net Long Futures and Options: -60278
Long Term: Down           Change: +1000
Overnight Trade: Chicago: N -2 KC: N -2 1/2
Opening Calls: 1-2 Lower


The wheat market is due for a bounce. The wheat hasn’t been able to make new lows despite the negative outside market influences and the negative supply and demand outlook. That is a very good sign the market is about to make a recovery bounce. However, bounces are still selling opportunities, and a move to $5.00 in the July KW would be a great place to sell. Export sales continue to be poor with 250,500 MT of old crop and 205,200 MT of new crop sales.

Soybeans                        Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Down         Net Long Futures and Options: -1818
Long Term: Down         Change: -1000
Overnight Trade: N -1/2
Opening Calls: 1-2 Lower


The soybeans started the overnight session strong based on ideas that China would be purchasing more old crop US soybeans. However, the gains didn’t hold and the July beans are back to trading just above the recent lows. Export sales were very good at 478,500 MT, which almost guarantees that USDA will have to raise the export estimate in the next report. Plan on two sided trade with a retest of the overnight high.

Live Cattle
Trend
Short Term: Up
Long Term: Up
Seasonal: Down
Opening Calls: 20-40 Lower


Live cattle futures closed steady to .32 lower on Wednesday, with prices bouncing .70-.90 off of session lows into the close. The short covering recovery may be short lived if outside markets remain under pressure. Cash trade has been fairly active, with most prices $2-$4 lower than week ago levels. Cutout values declined on Wednesday, but packer margins have actually widened during the setback. Tight supplies and overall demand remain supportive, but are being outweighed by weakness in equity markets. Overnight activity is lower across the board, with .30-.50 losses as we write. Weekly slaughter remains above week ago and year ago levels.

Feeder Cattle
Trends
Short Term: Up
Long Term: Up
Seasonal: Up
Opening Call: Lower


Feeder cattle futures closed mostly steady on Wednesday, with the soon to expire May contract gaining .60 for the day on continued cash strength. Overnight trade is sharply lower, with weakness in equity markets pressuring. The August contract traded below key support at 112.00 on Wednesday, but closed above that level. This morning’s weakness is pushing prices back below key support again, with recovery less optimistic after the weekly jobless claims came in much higher than expected. It is economic concerns and not pure fundamentals that is creating weakness in this market. A test of the 109.50 level basis the August feeders appears more likely than not.