Schwieterman: Another day of new all-time highs for beef cutouts

 Resize text         Printer-friendly version of this article Printer-friendly version of this article

Corn                                           Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term:Down                  Net Long Futures and Options: -17512
Long Term: Down                  Change: -7000
Overnight Trade: N -1 Z -1 @7:30 AM


July corn is testing yesterday’s of $6.40 ¼ as support. Failure there would point to a move down to $6.32. The December contract has touched last week’s low and is likely headed for $5.18. Basis levels are working higher again, which should support the July contract and bull spreading. Forecasts are not conducive to planting over the next week in a big part of the Corn Belt, but the assumption seems to be that it doesn’t matter.

Wheat                                       Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Down                  Net Long Futures and Options: -50000
Long Term: Down                   Change: -3000
Overnight Trade: Chicago: N -5 KC: N -3 @7:30 AM


Fundamentally the wheat market is fairly friendly with a shrinking crop and good new crop export sales. Expectations of a large corn crop is the biggest fundamental problem the market has. The charts look very bearish after the past two days of weakness and the failure of the 50-day moving average to hold as support. The $7.30 area is the next downside target in the July KW.

Soybeans                                   Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Up                         Net Long Futures and Options: 44504
Long Term:Up                           Change: +5000
Overnight Trade: N +4 X +1 @7:30 AM

Bull spreading continues to be active in the soybeans. Basis levels are strong and traders are planning on a large new crop. The July contract has taken out the pre-stocks report high, which should make the $14.80 area the next upside objective. A move to that level still wouldn’t catch the futures up to the current cash market, so there is certainly some merit to the idea of the market moving higher.

Live Cattle
Trend
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down
Opening Calls: Mixed


Live cattle futures settled modestly lower on Thursday, with light selling ahead of this afternoon’s on feed report. Some cash trade surfaced in the south at $125 on Thursday afternoon, with a majority of the trade yet to take shape. Another day of new all-time highs in the beef cutouts, along with declining weights should be enough fundamental support but the market continues to struggle. The rise in beef prices and in the Dollar are starting to weigh on export demand, with only 4,700 mt sold last week.

Feeder Cattle
Trends
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down
Opening Call: Mixed


Feeder cattle futures declined on Thursday in spite of solid losses in the corn market. Daily cash index figures were softer, suggesting a lack of replacement money interested in betting on the come one more time. Feeders may be difficult to rally until after the release of the April placement number, which is expected to be the second largest in 10 years. Corn is narrowly mixed, with a slightly lower bias in overnight trade.



Comments (0) Leave a comment 

Name
e-Mail (required)
Location

Comment:

characters left


Scout™ 4WD UTV

Work, play or explore with the Case IH Scout™ utility vehicles. They offer plenty of power, accessories to match any ... Read More

View all Products in this segment

View All Buyers Guides

Feedback Form
Leads to Insight