Schwieterman: Beef see record highs again, cattle futures lower

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Corn                                             Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term:Down                     Net Long Futures and Options: -10512
Long Term: Down                     Change: -4000
Overnight Trade: N -1 Z +1 @7:30 AM


The July corn is consolidating below the 50-day moving average. Fresh news is limited. Export sales were not exciting at 219,900 MT of old crop at 38,600 MT of new crop sales. Basis is still strong and the bull spreads should keep working in the long run. The December contract is trading sideways and looks to be headed to the lower end of the trading range. Wetter forecasts are supporting the new crop this morning, but if that switches at mid-day that support will be gone.

Wheat                                           Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Down                      Net Long Futures and Options: -47000
Long Term: Down                       Change: -4000
Overnight Trade: Chicago: N +2 KC: N +4 @7:30 AM


The July KW closed below the 50-day moving average, which is very discouraging. The crop is still shrinking and export sales were ok with 125,000 MT of old crop and 415,600 MT of new crop sales, so the fundamental inputs are supportive. The problem is that if corn is down the wheat will likely go with it. The wheat market is still going to be dependent on feed usage to hold down supplies.

Soybeans                                     Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Up                           Net Long Futures and Options: 39504
Long Term:Up                             Change: -3000
Overnight Trade: N +3 X +4 @7:30 AM


The July soybeans continue to consolidate. The market has lost upside momentum, but it is clear that traders are nervous about selling with basis so strong. Export sales were ok with old  crop at 15,300 MT and new crop at 346,600 MT. In the long run traders will bull spread this market, so at the moment that is the best plan of attack.

Live Cattle
Trend
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down
Opening Calls: Mixed

Live cattle futures closed significantly lower on Wednesday, with deferred contracts posting new low closes. Cutout values set new record highs again, with choice up another 1.86 for the day. Improved demand and record prices don’t make much since with futures posting new lows. Asking prices remain firm, with southern cattle priced $127-$128 and northern cattle at $205 in the beef. Overnight trade is firming in the June contract, with deferred months struggling to hold on to gains. We hear that packers are pulling contracts early in order to fill nearby kill needs, which should bring weights down more rapidly.

Feeder Cattle
Trends
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down
Opening Call: Mixed


Feeder cattle futures posted moderate to sharply lower closes on Wednesday, as the inability of the fats to rally along with higher corn prices week to date weigh on the market. The projected 12% rise in April placements in tomorrow afternoons’ report is the other driving force. The market is setup to see a friendly surprise, with all news currently being treated as a negative. Recent support levels rest within .20-.70 of current levels basis the August contract. The August forward contracts continue to carry a 10.00 or more premium to the current cash market, as they bet on lower feed costs.



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