Schwieterman: Cash cattle trade subdued by winter storm

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Corn                                            Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Down                   Net Long Futures and Options: 29103
Long Term: Down                    Change: -10000
Overnight Trade: H +1 @7:30 AM


The corn market remains range bound and directionless. The weather concerns that are supporting the soybeans aren’t moving the corn market higher because the corn market is still lacking export demand. Export sales were improved at 361,800 MT, but that probably isn’t enough to get speculators excited. Continue to watch the boundaries of the recent trading range and go with a breakout.

Wheat                                         Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Down                    Net Long Futures and Options: -72078
Long Term: Down                    Change: -6000
Overnight Trade: Chicago: H +2 KC: H +1 @7:30 AM


Wheat export sales were good again at 699,300 MT of old crop and 56,600 MT of new crop sales. Having large sales verified today and with talk of a good report next week as well, should keep the wheat from making new lows today. It would take a very strong close to change the extremely negative chart outlook, so this little bit of news probably isn’t enough to guarantee a turnaround in the wheat market, especially with more moisture in the forecast for the HRW Belt.

Soybeans                                    Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Up                          Net Long Futures and Options: 118075
Long Term:Up                            Change: +4000
Overnight Trade: H +13 @7:30 AM


The March soybeans blasted through the $15.00 level overnight reaching the $15.16 ½ level at one point. Unfortunately they beans quickly gave up half the gains and then had another poor export sales report with net cancelations of 119,075 MT for the old crop. Fortunately meal and oil sales were very good, so the overall demand outlook is still strong. A close above $15.00 today would indicate the March beans are headed to $15.84.

Live Cattle
Trend
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down
Opening Calls: Mixed


Live cattle futures closed mixed on Thursday, with February up.20 and deferred contracts moderately lower. Cash trade has been subdued by the winter storm and an unwillingness of either side to cave in. Weights dropped in all categories for the week and we expect to see more of the same following one of the largest snow storms in recent Kansas history. This afternoon’s on feed report is expecting steady to slightly higher placements, 5% higher marketings and 6% lower total numbers on feed. In spite of the storm and steady cash trade, the April board is off 2.70 from last Friday’s close.

Feeder Cattle
Trends
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down
Opening Call: Mixed


Feeder cattle futures finished lower across the board on Thursday, with all but the March contract taking out the previous days limit lower lows. The weakness comes in spite of continued lower trade in the corn market. For the week the April feeders are down 3.30, while corn prices in March have given up another 8 cents. Some support for feeders could be seen heading into the on feed report, but rallies will find new willing sellers in this market.



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