Schwieterman: Cattle futures close moderately higher Friday

Corn                                             Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term:Down                     Net Long Futures and Options: 38103
Long Term: Down                     Change: +5000
Overnight Trade: H Unch @7:30 AM

The corn was quiet overnight despite strong gains in the soybeans. The fact that the March corn finally broke the string of lower closes on Friday is encouraging, and a good indication that we are due for a short covering bounce. The $7.14 - $7.16 area is a likely upside target for the March corn, but to expect a move above that we will probably have to see some bullish corn specific new, or a great deal of strength in the soybeans.

Wheat                                         Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Down                    Net Long Futures and Options: -65078
Long Term: Down                     Change: +3000
Overnight Trade: Chicago: H -1 KC: H Unch @7:30 AM

The March KW has been consolidating for several sessions just above $7.70. There is a moisture event scheduled for part of the HRW Belt this week, which may made it hard to rally this market. On the other hand, there is talk about big export sales going to several locations and confirmation of that business would be a big help to the market. It wouldn’t take much short covering to get the market back above $8.00, but we will have to see that export business.

Soybeans                                   Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Down                   Net Long Futures and Options: 99075
Long Term: Down                    Change: +3000
Overnight Trade: H +20 @7:30 AM

The March soybeans gapped over the 40-day moving average overnight, traded through the 50-day moving average and reached the 50% retracement of the last move down. Talk of Chinese and European demand is very supportive and if these gains can hold today it will make the chart picture look very friendly as well. A close above $14.38 would indicate the next upside objective is $14.62.

Live Cattle
Trend
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down
Opening Calls: Mixed

Live cattle futures closed moderately higher on Friday, with April actually posting modest weekly gains, after a rough start to the week and weaker cash. Early show list returns show modestly higher numbers offered for the week. Open interest remains on the rise, with Friday gaining another 975 contracts on the rally. The market needs to see some cash improvement this week. A winter storm entering the plains on Wednesday is expected to slow weight gains over the next couple of weeks. It would appear that Nebraska and northern tiers of Kansas could catch the brunt of the accumulation.

Feeder Cattle
Trends
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down
Opening Call: Mixed

Feeder cattle futures closed moderately higher on Friday, leaving March with weekly losses of about a 1.60. Corn values were off 11 cents for the week and are trading narrowly mixed in overnight trade. Livestock futures will reopen at 9:05 this morning, following the 3 day weekend. We saw a slight rebound at Monday’s sale in Oklahoma City, suggesting that the strong slide in cash prices may be subsiding. We continue to favor hedge strategies in the feeders, until more promising trade in the fat market develops.

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6. Beef exports depend on quality reputation

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3. Corn planting pace turns from record slow to record fast
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