Schwieterman: Expect big planting numbers this afternoon

Corn                                                  Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Down                         Net Long Futures and Options:
Long Term: Down                          Change:
Overnight Trade: N -8 Z -8 1/2
Opening Calls: 7-10 Lower

The corn market is starting the week by making a run for the recent lows. Right now it looks like we need to plan on the July corn heading for $6.02. Meanwhile, basis is improving and the May contract is generally stronger than the July. It seems that the futures market is trying to let the Chinese buy corn cheap again and the cash market is trying to keep that from happening. Look for a big planting number this afternoon.

Wheat                                              Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Down                         Net Long Futures and Options:
Long Term: Down                          Change:
Overnight Trade: Chicago: N -7 KC: N -7 1/4
Opening Calls: 7-10 Lower

The wheat made new lows for the move overnight. The wheat is due for a corrective bounce, but when the corn is weaker there is very little reason to buy wheat. There could be some buying support near $6.26 in the May KW contract, but it is beginning to look like a move down to the round number support at $6.00 is next. This market needs to see a turn in the corn and some big export sales.

Soybeans                                        Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Up                              Net Long Futures and Options:
Long Term: Up                               Change:
Overnight Trade: N -10 3/4 X -10 3/4
Opening Calls: 10-15 Lower

Failure to make new highs Friday was disappointing to the bulls, which could lead to a profit taking break. The soybean fundamentals are still bullish, but we seem to have run out of traders who are willing to chase the market higher despite being steadily fed bullish demand news from China. Breaks are still for buying, but plan on some pressure as we get the week started.

Live Cattle
Trend
Short Term: Up
Long Term: Down
Opening Calls: Mixed

Live cattle futures closed sharply lower on Friday, continuing the volatile yoyo action that we saw all week. June cattle closed modestly higher for the week, with cash trade also positive in most locations. We expect packers to once again be short bought by midweek, which should support any board weakness. Overnight activity in outside markets is mixed, with equities higher and the Dollar firming near recent highs. Asking prices this week are expected to be near $125 in the south and $200 in the beef in Nebraska.

Feeder Cattle
Trends
Short Term: Up
Long Term: Down
Opening Call: Mixed

Feeder cattle futures had a strong week, with the May contract gaining well over 3.00 in the five days. A .33 drop in old crop corn values added to the buying in the feeders. Overnight grain prices were under additional pressure, with corn and wheat putting in new lows for the move. Cash index levels appear set for a week of improvement, with late week sales showing some solid gains. Friday afternoon will see the release of the monthly on feed report. Official estimate have yet to be released, with most early talk expecting reduces placements.

1. Commentary: In praise of animal foods
2. USDA approves newly formulated PULMO-GUARD vaccine for cattle
3. Another droughty summer forecast for West Texas
4. Do opponents of crop insurance oppose farm programs in general?
5. Ag markets generally mixed again Tuesday morning
6. UK first in EU to get Merck's new Schmallenberg vaccine

1. Michigan hay buyers should plan purchases early
2. New animal identification rules aid disease traceability
3. Corn planting pace turns from record slow to record fast
4. U.S. cattle placements rise in April as feed costs subside
5. Survey reveals most Americans in favor of COOL
6. Ag markets were mixed to start the new week

1. Meat and climate change: How significant is the impact?
2. BeefTalk: How do we get the next generation to raise beef?
3. 2014 Farm Bill: Are we near an agreement?
4. Farm bill and immigration reform action needed
5. Boxed beef hits record highs, cattle weak to lower
6. Survey reveals most Americans in favor of COOL