Schwieterman: Feeder cattle hit by rising corn

 Resize text         Printer-friendly version of this article Printer-friendly version of this article

Corn                                  Estimated Fund Position
Trends – December Contract
Short Term:Down              Net Long Futures and Options: -198991
Long Term: Down              Change: +8000
Overnight Trade: Z +1 @7:30 AM

The corn was firm yesterday and the December contract traded through trend line resistance, which will create some optimism among chart watchers. The market got some help from talk of Chinese corn purchases. It seems that the Chinese are buying as much of our stuff as they can, which could be a very big help to the corn and wheat markets. The December contract will run into heavy overhead resistance at the $4.45 - $4.50 area, so further gains should be limited.

Wheat                               Estimated Fund Position
Trends – December Contract
Short Term: Up                 Net Long Futures and Options: -60219
Long Term:Up                   Change: -2000
Overnight Trade: Chicago: Z +1 KC: Z Unch @7:30 AM


Another day, another directionless session in the wheat. Since the December KW is at the bottom end of the trading range now, I suspect that we will see a positive close today. There isn’t much better logic to go off of than that since we don’t have any market information. I would like a sizeable correction to buy, but it isn’t happening so for now I am waiting for a close above the 200-day moving average.

Soybeans                         Estimated Fund Position
Trends – November Contract
Short Term: Down            Net Long Futures and Options: 80218
Long Term: Down             Change: -5000
Overnight Trade: X -3 @7:30 AM


The critical support is holding in the November soybean contract. With the lack of fresh information it is probably time for the beans to start drifting higher for a couple of days. If the government is reopened it might create a little buying enthusiasm since we should see some very large export sales numbers thrown at us. A move to $12.80 this week is likely.

Live Cattle
Trend
Short Term: Up
Long Term: Up
Opening Calls: Mixed


Live cattle futures closed sharply lower in the October contract on Tuesday, with moderate losses in the rest of the complex. The 33 loads were retendered and reclaimed overnight, with no fresh deliveries posted. October is gaining back most of its’ spread losses overnight, with deferred contracts holding near steady. Scattered bids of $126 will not stir much attention, with asking prices holding firm near $130. The uncertainty of what the government will do in the next 24 hours could keep any rally efforts off the table. Cutouts are being reported sharply higher this week, with movement appearing better as well.

Feeder Cattle
Trends
Short Term: Up
Long Term: Up
Opening Call: Mixed


Feeder cattle futures felt the double whammy of higher corn and lower fats on Tuesday, closing nearly 2.00 lower in the front four trading months. Overnight trade is narrowly mixed, with slight gains in the front and modest losses in the deferred. We would expect the market to remain defensive ahead of the government decision. We like holding put protection in this market from current levels. Open interest went up 259 contracts on Tuesday’s sharp break. Fresh sellers are entering the fray.



Comments (0) Leave a comment 

Name
e-Mail (required)
Location

Comment:

characters left


Scout™ 4WD UTV

Work, play or explore with the Case IH Scout™ utility vehicles. They offer plenty of power, accessories to match any ... Read More

View all Products in this segment

View All Buyers Guides

Feedback Form
Leads to Insight