Schwieterman: Feeder cattle see limited losses as corn improves

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Corn                                         Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term:Down                Net Long Futures and Options: 10512
Long Term: Down                Change: +1500
Overnight Trade: N -2 Z +1 @7:30 AM


Corn traded both sides of unchanged overnight and saw some bear spreading as traders took profits following yesterday’s big gains in the spreads. Forecasts are still a concern. It was reported that only 28% of the crop had been planted and further delays will begin to impact yield. At the same time we are dealing with very tight old crop stocks, which keeps supporting the old crop and keeps the bull spreads working. The July corn filled last Monday’s chart gap making $6.69 the next hurdle for that market. A close above that and we can think about $7.00.

Wheat                                     Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Down                Net Long Futures and Options: -44000
Long Term:Up                       Change: +2000
Overnight Trade: Chicago: N +2 KC: N Unch @7:30 AM


By the end of the session, yesterday’s gains weren’t all that impressive. The wheat is definitely lagging the other markets. Traders are not impressed by the supply concerns we have with the wheat crop, they are more interested in the direction of the corn market and wheat export sales. The July KW is still holding above the 50-day moving average, which is good, but we have a series of lower highs and lower lows that needs to be broken soon. The market must clear $7.80 to regain upward momentum.

Soybeans                                Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Up                      Net Long Futures and Options: 45504
Long Term:Up                        Change: +6000
Overnight Trade: N +5 X +3 @7:30 AM


July soybeans made another new high for the move overnight and have nearly reached the pre-stocks report levels. Tight old crop stocks should keep support under this market. Basis levels aren’t backing off and the July futures are simply too low and aren’t keeping up with the cash market. Bull spreads should keep working.

Live Cattle
Trend
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down
Opening Calls: Mixed


Live cattle futures closed mostly higher on Monday but well off of early session highs. Cutout values continued to firm on a smaller scale than a week ago. June continues to run at a large discount to last weeks’ cash but does appear to building a base just above the 120.00 level. First major resistance in the June should come in at 121.60. Overnight trade has been within .20 of yesterday’s close on either side. We wonder whether there is enough outside money flow to turn prices up without the packer being the buyer.

Feeder Cattle
Trends
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down
Opening Call: Mixed


Feeder cattle futures closed moderately lower on Monday, which was somewhat impressive considering the sharply higher close in the corn futures. Corn is higher again in overnight trade, with spot feeders higher and deferred contracts narrowly mixed. Cash feeders are showing a little bit of strength in the last couple of days, which should help solidify the index as we head into the second half of May.



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