Schwieterman: Stronger cash trade supports live cattle futures

Corn                                               Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Up                            Net Long Futures and Options: 15333
Long Term: Up                             Change: +6000
Overnight Trade: K –1 @7:30 AM

May corn made another new high for the move overnight, nearly reaching the 50% retracement of the last move down. $7.22, which is the 62% retracement, looks like a viable upside target ahead of Friday supply and demand report. The bull spreading continues in the corn market and probably will as long as basis levels stay strong.

Wheat                                            Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Down                       Net Long Futures and Options: -66171
Long Term: Down                        Change: +2000
Overnight Trade: Chicago: K -7 KC: K -8 @7:30 AM

The May KW has traded through trend line resistance, but the market is still struggling. It appears that the wheat is content with being a feed grain and it looks like the May corn will eventually trade over the May Chicago wheat. We have to see consistently strong exports in order to see consistent gains in the corn market. Until that happens the wheat will be the short leg of spreads.

Soybeans                                          Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Up                                Net Long Futures and Options: 110999
Long Term:Up                                  Change: -4000
Overnight Trade: K -2 @7:30 AM

The soybeans are following trend line support slowly higher. Production estimates are shrinking in S. America, which is supportive and our export sales pace is too strong. USDA should increase the export estimate in Friday’s report, which will draw down ending stocks further. Look for the old crop soybeans to make a run up to the top of the trading range this week.

Live Cattle
Trend
Short Term: Up
Long Term: Down
Opening Calls: Mixed

Live cattle futures closed narrowly mixed on Friday, with modest gains in the April and June, while deferred contracts retracted. Last weeks’ sharply higher cash trade and cutout values should continue to support this market. We could see a rise in show list size this week, as feedlots uncover from the winter storm and are more willing to pull cattle forward as prices improve. Open interest remains on the rise as new money climbs aboard. Asking prices in the south should range from $130-$132, with northern cattle priced at $206+.

Feeder Cattle
Trends
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down
Opening Call: Mixed

Feeder cattle futures settled moderately lower on Friday and as much as 1.10 off of session highs. The combination of lower futures and a .70 rise in the cash index narrowed the gap between the two to under 3.00. We could be forming a solid bottom in the feeders, but expect strength to be hard to come by until cash enthusiasm is confirmed. Corn is narrowly mixed in overnight trade.

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