Schwieterman: Weekly export sales supportive for beef complex

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Corn                                                Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term:Down                       Net Long Futures and Options:
Long Term: Up                             Change:
Overnight Trade: H -3 @7:30 AM


Corn export sales were horrible at 51,600 MT due in part to cancellations by unknown destinations, and the fact that the total wasn’t going to be very high anyway. Yesterday the market posted decent gains, but it is quickly giving those gains back, so the consolidation continues. Other than the export sales, there is little fresh news. There is an unemployment report tomorrow that will cause volatility in the financial markets and next Tuesday is the supply and demand report. We won’t have any big moves in either direction without fresh news.

Wheat                                               Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Down                          Net Long Futures and Options:
Long Term: Down                           Change:
Overnight Trade: Chicago: H +1 KC: H+1 @7:30 AM


The wheat is in consolidation mode as well. The forecasts are dry, but the export sales were poor at 353,100 MT, so there isn’t much reason for movement. The drought will keep support under the market, but it will take demand to really make the market move. Look for sideways trade today and for the market to start drifting back to the middle of the range eventually.

Soybeans                                         Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Up                               Net Long Futures and Options:
Long Term: Down                           Change:
Overnight Trade: F +6 @7:30 AM


Soybean export sales were tremendous at 1.14 MMT, and meal and oil sales were good as well. The soybean sales total was more than 5 times what we need to see each week and it is very likely that USDA increases the export estimate in either the December or January supply and demand report. The January contract is closing in on $15.00 and should make it soon.

Live Cattle
Trend
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down
Opening Calls: Mixed


Live cattle futures closed moderately higher on Wednesday, reversing follow through weakness in early trade. Cash trade is yet to establish for the week, with bids and asking prices remaining at least $4.00 apart. For the week December live is off .65 and remains above the majority of last weeks’ cash trade. Slaughter slowed to 119,000 on Wednesday, suggesting a lack of demand or a shortage of available inventory. This weeks’ cash will likely determine which one of those theories is accurate.

Feeder Cattle
Trends
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down
Opening Call: Mixed


Feeder cattle futures closed .70-.90 higher on Wednesday, in spite of solidly higher gains in the grain futures. Overnight futures have continued to firm in the feeders, with corn backing off about half of the previous days’ gains. Technical resistance for the January futures rests at the 40 day moving average of 147.10. Cash index levels were up 19 for the day but remain 44 lower for the week. Weekly export sales of 14,000 mt should be supportive for the beef complex.



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