Schwieterman: Beef prices on the decline, light cash trade

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Corn                                      Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Up                  Net Long Futures and Options: 105385
Long Term: Up                   Change: -5000
Overnight Trade: K +1 Z -1 @7:30 AM


The May corn is still trading sideways waiting for tomorrow’s reports. Overnight trade volume has been light and that will probably be the case through the day. News is limited today, but we will get the ethanol production figure from the EIA. Plan on volatility tomorrow and plan on bull spreading once we get past the report.

Wheat                                  Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Up                  Net Long Futures and Options: -53651
Long Term: Down              Change: +1500
Overnight Trade: Chicago: K +2 KC: K +1 @7:30 AM


The May KW is slowly creeping towards the $7.74 level, which is the 38% retracement of the last move down and the 40-day moving average. If you are long that would be a good place to take profit. Price direction after today will probably be controlled by the corn market, because the wheat numbers won’t be nearly as exciting. Nationwide crop condition ratings will be released on Monday, which could serve as a reminder of the disparity between HRW and SRW and really help the spread trade between Kansas City and Chicago.

Soybeans                             Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Up                   Net Long Futures and Options: 87172
Long Term:Up                     Change: +5000
Overnight Trade: K +3 @7:30 AM

The May soybeans made a new high for the move. I would like to say that the market will move straight up to $14.90 now, but the recent history of the market has been much more choppy than that. Tomorrow’s stocks report should be bullish and the acreage figure will likely be higher than last year, which should encourage bull spreading, but you never know what USDA will throw out. Plan on two sided trade today as everyone gets ready for the reports.

Live Cattle
Trend
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down
Opening Calls: Mixed

Live cattle futures closed moderately lower on Tuesday, with some light cash trade in the south at last weeks’ price of $125. Remaining show lists are priced near $127 south and $202 in the north. Overnight activity is firming in the front months, with April up .17, as it tries to hold above the 126.00 level. Beef prices remain on the decline, while hide and offal values continue at record high levels. Weather continues to be a factor on the demand side, as producers are still waiting for the grilling season to kick in. Charts continue to consolidate above recent lows, with resistance near the 15 day moving average.

Feeder Cattle
Trends
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down
Opening Call: 20-30 Lower


Feeder cattle futures closed narrowly mixed on Tuesday, with the front month’s higher and deferred contracts lower. Corn markets were modestly lower on Tuesday and are trading narrowly mixed overnight. The March feeders expire on Thursday, with the index currently 1.30 discounts to the board. Deferred feeders are weaker overnight, as they attempt to close the gap with the current cash market. Reports of very inconsistent conversion rates this winter have cattle feeders more cautious about input costs, i.e. initial feeder costs.



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