Schwieterman: Cattle futures lower, corn drops a dime

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Corn                                         Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Up                     Net Long Futures and Options: 24287
Long Term: Up                      Change: -12000
Overnight Trade: N -4 Z -3 @7:30 AM

The corn was weaker yesterday and saw follow through selling overnight. Traders are content with the forecasts, which will keep pressure on the new crop. There is plenty of uncertainty in the marketplace with option expiration for the July contracts today and the Quarterly Stocks and Planted Acreage report next Friday, so traders may not be willing to push the markets very hard in either direction today.

Wheat                                      Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Down                 Net Long Futures and Options: -45031
Long Term: Down                  Change: -2000
Overnight Trade: Chicago: N -2 KC: N -1 @7:30 AM


The wheat market has been pretty resilient this week and has had a tendency to be the strongest of the grain markets. With option expiration today I give the July KW a chance of at least testing the $7.50 level. I don’t see the market posting consistent gains unless the corn is, but it is certainly possible to see a little more of a bounce in the market. Long term I think rallies are for selling.

Soybeans                                   Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Down                   Net Long Futures and Options: 103571
Long Term:Up                           Change: -7000
Overnight Trade: N -1 X -7 @7:30 AM


The November soybean chart is starting to look a little rough again. The new low for the move overnight suggests we will see a move down to $12.40 in the near future. If the forecasts look favorable on Sunday in could happen sooner rather than later. The bull spreaders should be in control of this market.

Live Cattle
Trend
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down
Opening Calls: 20-40 Lower


Live cattle futures closed moderately lower on Thursday, setting up another late week of cash trade, with the added spice of a cattle on feed report due out after the close of trade. Average estimates look for on feed of 95%, placements of 96% and marketings of 98%. If in line, the numbers should be supportive to the deferred live cattle. Current strength in the Dollar may be trumping most of the existing fundamentals. We expect steady money to finally prevail, with a decent chance of a friendly placement number in the report.

Feeder Cattle
Trends
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down
Opening Call: 10-30 Lower


Feeder cattle futures posted modest losses Thursday, on a day when corn valuations dropped 10 cents. Our idea that fat futures are more important to the feeders than corn at this time remains intact. We look for choppy trade again today, as the trade looks for feedlot cash to lead the way. Outside influences are somewhat mixed, with the Dollar higher as well as equities.



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