Schwieterman: Cattle futures rebound with move higher Wednesday

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Corn                                               Estimated Fund Position
Trends – March Contract
Short Term: Up                              Net Long Futures and Options: -114067
Long Term: Up                               Change: +10000
Overnight Trade: H +3 @7:30 AM


Corn export sales were huge for the second week in a row at 1.70 MMT. USDA will have to increase the export estimate in Monday’s report and cut ending stocks. The market is closing in on the $4.50 target in the March contract and the December contract has about 10 cents to go before hitting major resistance near $4.70. The fundamentals are certainly improving with each export sale, but overall sentiment is still bearish, especially for the new crop.

Wheat                                              Estimated Fund Position
Trends – March Contract
Short Term: Up                                Net Long Futures and Options: -90005
Long Term: Down                            Change: +7000

Overnight Trade: Chicago: H +2 KC: H +3 @7:30 AM

Wheat export sales were very good at 638,800 MT for the old crop and 94,800 MT for the new crop. Today’s figure is certainly supportive and the fact that Brazil was on the list of buyers is further indication of Argentina’s economic troubles. The March KW made a new high for the move overnight and the next upside target is now $6.74. This strength is getting a lot of short traders wrong quickly, so look for more short covering this week.

Soybeans                                          Estimated Fund Position
Trends – March Contract
Short Term: Up                                 Net Long Futures and Options: 116105
Long Term:Up                                   Change: +8000
Overnight Trade: H +11 @7:30 AM


Soybean export sales were much too large at 577,000 MT for the old crop and 125,000 MT for the new crop. It is going to be interesting to see how USDA handles the fact that we have already sold 1.58 billion bushels of beans, but the export estimate is only 1.495 billion. On paper that would imply ending stocks are about 65 million bushels, so it looks to me like we either need a lot of cancelations, or old crop soybeans are way too cheap. A close above $13.30 in March would be bullish.

Live Cattle
Trend
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Up
Opening Calls: 10-30 Higher


Live cattle futures closed modestly higher on Wednesday, with winter weather and weaker cutouts offsetting each other in the market. Overnight trade is trending better, along with equities and most commodity markets. we still expect this weeks’ cash to struggle along with the cutouts, but the forecasts of extended cold and wetter in feeding areas is adding support.

Feeder Cattle
Trends
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Up
Opening Call: 10-30
Higher

Feeder cattle futures were mostly higher into the close on Wednesday, with March the lone exception. Overnight trade is firmer, in spite of new highs for the move developing in the corn market. Cash index levels fell .49 on Wednesday with a seven day average of 170.50. March futures are still discounted to the index by 3.50 to start the day.



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