Schwieterman: Limit higher corn forces feeder futures lower

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Corn                                        Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Up                    Net Long Futures and Options: -12169
Long Term: Down               Change: +20000
Overnight Trade: N -1 Z +1 @7:30 AM


There ended up being very little follow through buying in the corn overnight, which is surprising considering the limit higher closes in the front months yesterday. Planting progress was horrible at only 5%, which was up only 1 point from last week, so we could end up see bear spreading today and traders put more premium into the September and December contracts. Anybody that sold corn the day after the stocks report is wrong, so we should have some short covering to fuel further strength as the margin calls come in.

Wheat                                     Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Up                     Net Long Futures and Options: -44058
Long Term:Up                       Change: +7000
Overnight Trade: Chicago: N -7 KC: N -8 @7:30 AM


Crop conditions deteriorated again with Kansas falling to 27% Good to Excellent and 39% Poor to very poor. The wheat tour is under way and as usual they are finding good wheat in Riley County, and as usual they won’t find poor wheat until later in the day. The July KW got awfully close to the $7.83 objective yesterday and it will take some strength in the corn and bullish wheat news to push through.

Soybeans                                 Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Up                       Net Long Futures and Options: 53963
Long Term:Up                         Change: +8000
Overnight Trade: N +6 X +4 @7:30 AM


July soybeans are looking good on the charts and the bull spreading is still active. There is some concern that the late planting of soybeans will mean that it will be very hard to fill the gap between old and new crop, which ends up being very supportive to the July, August, and September contracts. Breaks are a buying opportunity in the old crop.

Live Cattle
Trend
Short Term: Up
Long Term: Down
Opening Calls: Mixed


Live cattle futures closed narrowly mixed on Monday, with early strength giving in to long liquidation. Show lists appear generally smaller than a week ago, with Kansas the only state carrying as many or more than last week. We look for the June contract to gradually work higher after April expires at noon today. Cutout values started the week on fire, with choice cuts up an impressive 1.90 for the day. Outside market influences look pretty flat this morning. Expect most feedlots to price cattle near $130 in the south and at least $207 in the north.

Feeder Cattle
Trends
Short Term: Up
Long Term: Down
Opening Call: Mixed


Feeder cattle futures felt the weight of limit higher corn on Monday, posting triple digit losses across the board. The combination of higher corn and an already lofty premium to the cash market was more than market could handle. Corn started higher overnight but has retreated to narrowly mixed as we write. The lead May contract should attract solid buying support at the 140.00 level. Deferred contracts remain somewhat more vulnerable, with their lofty premiums above 150.00.



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