Schwieterman: Live cattle futures closed sharply higher on Tues.

 Resize text         Printer-friendly version of this article Printer-friendly version of this article

Corn Estimated Fund Position

Trends – December Contract

Short Term:Down Net Long Futures and Options: 9001

Long Term: Down Change: -4000

Overnight Trade: Z +1 @7:30 AM

The corn made another new low for the move overnight before making a small bounce at the end of the session. There isn’t any fresh news, so we are looking at an oversold market and non-threaten weather. The weather is going to beat the oversold market because yield estimates keep creeping higher. USDA isn’t going to print a 180 yield in the August report, but unless the weather changes we can plan on higher yield estimates from the August report through the November report. Rallies are for selling.

Wheat Estimated Fund Position

Trends – December Contract

Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options: -72819

Long Term: Down Change: -3000

Overnight Trade: Chicago: Z +2 KC: Z +2 @7:30 AM

The wheat market continues to be sucked lower by the corn and soybeans. Tight HRW supplies are not supporting the market and there is still a perception that US wheat is overpriced on the world market. Trading funds are very short, which leads one to wonder how much more selling they can do, but so far any short covering rallies have been very short lived. The next chart support for the December KW is at $6.22.

Soybeans Estimated Fund Position

Trends – November Contract

Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options: -58341

Long Term: Down Change: -3000

Overnight Trade: X +4 @7:30 AM

Support failed in the November soybeans yesterday and the market made another new low for the move overnight. Using the weekly chart, the next major support appears to be at the 2010 low of $9.00 and if predications of huge yields are correct I suppose that will happen. I think we will see some great demand before we ever get to $9.00, but right now the attitude in the marketplace is overwhelmingly bearish. Sell rallies.

Live Cattle

Trend

Short Term: Up

Long Term: Up

Opening Calls: 30-50 Higher

Live cattle futures closed sharply higher on Tuesday, with the lead August contract settling limit up for the session. Cash trade has yet to materialize from the majors but we have heard reports of some sharply higher buying out of regional packers in the north. Overnight trade has seen new contract highs across the board, which should promote additional buying as shorts once again bail out of their positions. Open interest was up 2,269 contracts on Tuesday as new business pours into the market. Cutouts and drop credit prices are on a run higher this week as well.

Feeder Cattle

Trends

Short Term: Up

Long Term: Up

Opening Call: 75-150 Higher

Feeder cattle futures posted limit gains on the close in the front four trading months on Tuesday. The market is seeing new contract highs in the fats and new lows in the corn as plenty of reason to buck the recent cash index selloff. Overnight business remains on fire, with gains of more than 2.00 in the lead contracts. Corn prices are actually bouncing modestly in early morning trade but no one is looking for a sustained rally in that market near term.



Comments (0) Leave a comment 

Name
e-Mail (required)
Location

Comment:

characters left


XUV 855 Power Steering

Combining power steering with diesel power, durability and toughness, the 30 MPH, 22.8 HP John Deere Gator XUV855D features updates that enhance ... Read More

View all Products in this segment

View All Buyers Guides

Feedback Form
Leads to Insight