Schwieterman: Live cattle futures higher as slaughter rates jump

 Resize text         Printer-friendly version of this article Printer-friendly version of this article

Corn                                                  Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Up                              Net Long Futures and Options: 5849
Long Term: Down                         Change: -2000
Overnight Trade: K -2 Z +1 @7:30 AM


Profit taking on the bulls spreads ended up being the main feature of the market yesterday due largely to the threat of planting delays. We are still a long way from having a major yield impact on the corn, but the forecasts are certainly wet. Export sales were good at 400,300 MT of old crop sales and 16,900 MT of new crop. That total would be big enough to get speculators excited if it happens a few more times in a row. Look for the bull spreaders to reassert themselves and look for the May contract to test $6.70 again. $5.50 is key resistance for the December contract.

Wheat                                             Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Up                              Net Long Futures and Options: -49371
Long Term: Down                         Change: -1000
Overnight Trade: Chicago: K +3 KC: K +3 @7:30 AM


Wheat export sales were great with 552,100 MT of old crop and 1.123 MMT of new crop sales thanks to big sales to the Chinese. The wheat market did a poor job of holding gains yesterday after the front months of the Kansas City wheat stalled out at the 50-day moving average again. Look for yet another test of those highs today. Temperatures will be cold enough to do some damage tomorrow and crop condition ratings will probably decline in Kansas on Monday, but these large sales numbers are probably more important than freeze damage.

Soybeans                                         Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Up                               Net Long Futures and Options: 39626
Long Term: Down                           Change: +5000
Overnight Trade: K +9 X+4 @7:30 AM


As usual, soybean export sales came in at an unsustainable pace of 339,400 MT of old crop and 227,000 MT of new crop sales. Soybean meal sales of 266,000 MT were also very supportive to the market. Bull spreaders were active yesterday and again overnight. The May corn reached the $14.30 objective and a close above that level today would make $14.85 the next upside objective. .

Live Cattle
Trend
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down
Opening Calls: 10-30 Higher


Live cattle futures closed sharply higher on Wednesday, posting triple digit gains in all contract months. Cutout values were sharply higher as well, with weekly movement and slaughter pace showing solid improvement. Fridays’ on feed report will continue to show tight supplies into the late summer time frame. The key will continue to be slaughter pace. For the week we have killed four thousand more than a week ago. The rally in futures should allow asking prices to remain firm in the $128-$129 range. Short term technical indicators are turning up on any positive close today.

Feeder Cattle
Trends
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down
Opening Call: Mixed


Feeder cattle futures posted solid gains on Wednesday, with their first higher close in more than a week. Cash index levels remained on the defensive, down another .25 to 135.61 on Wednesday. Placement numbers in Friday’s report are expected to show similar numbers as a year ago, with year ago figures a five year low. The gains on Wednesday came in the face of poor outside market influences, which may bode well for the psychology of the market.



Comments (0) Leave a comment 

Name
e-Mail (required)
Location

Comment:

characters left


T5 Electro Command™

New Holland has further extended the T5 Series appeal to livestock producers with the addition of the Electro Command™ semi-powershift ... Read More

View all Products in this segment

View All Buyers Guides

Feedback Form
Leads to Insight