Schwieterman: Packers motivated by record high beef prices

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Corn                                              Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Up                           Net Long Futures and Options: -25169
Long Term: Down                      Change: -5000
Overnight Trade: N +7 Z +4 @7:30 AM


Corn made a decent recovery overnight thanks to the weather and the recovery in the financial markets. Export sales were good at 329,300 MT of old crop and 656,000 MT of new crop sales. If we could stay above 300,000 MT of old crop sales for a month or so, USDA would have to consider raising the export estimate. Bull spreading is active and the May – July spread is nearing a record level. Look for the July corn to test the 40-day moving average at $6.59 and possibly the 50 day at $6.63 today.

Wheat                                            Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Up                             Net Long Futures and Options: -42058
Long Term:Up                               Change: -3000
Overnight Trade: Chicago: N +2 KC: N +3 @7:30 AM


Wheat sales were a little light for the old crop at 219,200 MT and we are running out of time in the crop year. New crop sales were good at 497,300 MT. The wheat tour found less yield potential than last year on day two, which is not a surprise and suggested the majority of the wheat west of Hwy 283 would yield in the single digits. We had snow in Garden City this morning and we will have temps in the mid to upper 20’s tomorrow morning. All of this should combine to push the July KW to a retest of Tuesday high of $7.99.

Soybeans                                          Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Up                                Net Long Futures and Options: 41963
Long Term:Up                                  Change: -7000
Overnight Trade: N +6 X +3 @7:30 AM


For the second week in a row we had net cancellations of old crop soybeans. The old crop figure came in at -109,800 MT, but the new crop came in at 1.34 MMT, which is outstanding. The market took a beating yesterday due in part to fears of competition out of S. America, but in the meantime our interior basis levels aren’t backing off. Plan on a rebound today.

Live Cattle
Trend
Short Term: Up
Long Term: Up
Opening Calls: 30-50 Higher


Live cattle futures recovered most of Tuesday’s losses to close moderately higher on Wednesday. Support from new record high choice beef prices prompted packers to pay fully steady money in the south at midweek, with feedlots willing to accept due to their strong basis advantage. Northern cash trade remains untouched for the week, with asking prices $207+ in the beef. Overnight activity is testing Monday’s high of 123.35 in the June contract. A close above 122.60 would be the first close above the 50 day moving average since January 8th.

Feeder Cattle
Trends
Short Term: Up
Long Term: Down
Opening Call: 20-40 Higher


Feeder cattle futures closed narrowly mixed on Wednesday, in spite of weaker corn and solid gains in the fats. Overnight prices are firming in spite of solid gains in the corn futures. The market appears to be very range bound, with cash index levels remaining well below the futures and deferred feeder contracts pricing in the anticipated break in corn pricing as the new crop progresses. Rallies remain a selling opportunity until longer term technical strength is seen.



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