Schwieterman: Sharply higher beef prices finding good demand

Corn                                              Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term:Down                      Net Long Futures and Options: 167539
Long Term: Down                      Change: -7000
Overnight Trade: H -1 @7:30 AM

The corn market had every opportunity to break yesterday and fall to the November low, but it didn’t. So, with an oversold market and the downward momentum waning, today we should look for the market to consolidate and then begin to correct higher later this week. The news hasn’t changed in weeks and yesterday’s report provided no new information, so the corn market should continue to trade in the same broad trading range we have been stuck in since late September.

Wheat                                         Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Down                    Net Long Futures and Options: -34704
Long Term: Down                     Change: -10000
Overnight Trade: Chicago: H -2 KC: H -2 @7:30 AM

The wheat market, especially in Chicago, is falling out of the bottom of the trading range. The charts don’t look good and right now the poor export sales pace is to blame. Even the new crop July KW contract looks weak after yesterday’s trend line support failure. Moisture prospects are poor, which should keep support under the Kansas City wheat, but it will probably take fresh demand news to turn this market around.

Soybeans                                    Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Up                          Net Long Futures and Options: 77661
Long Term: Down                     Change: -5000
Overnight Trade: F-10 @7:30 AM

The soybean market is still correcting by trading sideways. Demand is still very strong for soybeans and the products, which is keeping the market from breaking very far. There is already an assumption that USDA will have to raise the soybean export estimate in the January report, which will draw down the ending stocks even further. Look for directionless trade today, but the January soybeans will soon begin a move to $15.35.

Live Cattle
Trend
Short Term: Up
Long Term: Up
Opening Calls: Mixed

Live cattle futures finished sharply higher on Tuesday. Boosted by technical buying and good strength in boxed beef prices, the market posted strong triple digit gains out thru the August timeframe. Overnight trade is adding to gains in the front four months. Fifteen new deliveries were posted against the December contract, with all coming in Syracuse. The sharply higher beef prices are finding pretty good demand, which should keep a floor under the live cattle. Technical indicators have turned up as well.

Feeder Cattle
Trends
Short Term: Up
Long Term: Up
Opening Call: Mixed

Feeder cattle futures had a monster day on Tuesday, with gains of more than 2.00 in the first 6 trading months. January feeders posted their highest trade since the middle of July. Technical indicators are higher across the board, suggesting that buyers will be there for any corrections in the market. Cash trade is rising, but is far enough behind futures that an overbought correction may be in order.

1. Ag markets moved mostly higher Wednesday morning
2. Wet conditions threaten hay crop as harvest is delayed
3. UNL crop-residue presentations available online
4. Cow slaughter through May likely to exceed same period in 2012
5. Beef Quiz: Growing beef demand
6. AFBF president issues statement on U.S.-EU trade negotiations

1. Will Smith dethroned in latest Peterson Farm Bros. parody
2. 3,000 pounds of copper wire stolen from Oklahoma ranch
3. Changes in U.S.-Mexican cattle and beef trade
4. Crude oil expected to peak and cost of electricity to go down
5. Peterson Brothers: What summer vacation?
6. Experts weigh in on lowest beef supply in 60 years

1. COOL isn’t working
2. Feedyard margins a train wreck, packers cozy
3. 2100: 11 billion mouths to feed
4. New tools emerging to measure soil health
5. Changes in U.S.-Mexican cattle and beef trade
6. How to grow beef demand