Natural gas marketed production is projected to increase from 69.2 Bcf/d in 2012 to 70.0 Bcf/d in 2013, and to 70.4 Bcf/d in 2014. Onshore production increases over the forecast period, while federal Gulf of Mexico production declines. Natural gas pipeline gross imports, which have fallen over the past five years, are projected to remain near their 2012 level over the forecast. LNG imports are expected to remain at minimal levels of around 0.4 Bcf/d in both 2013 and 2014.
Mexico's domestic natural gas consumption is rising faster than domestic production, leading to both record pipeline gas imports from the United States and growth in the country's imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Natural gas trade between Mexico and the United States has been growing; daily net exports from the United States to Mexico so far in 2013 (January 1-May 6) are estimated to average 1.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), up almost 29 percent over the same period in 2012.
The NOAA Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook predicts that the Atlantic Basin likely will experience above-normal tropical weather activity during the current hurricane season. EIA estimates that the median outcome for shut-in natural gas production in the federally administered Gulf of Mexico as a result of disruptions during the 2013 hurricane season is 46 Bcf (see the 2013 Outlook for Hurricane-Related Production Outages in the Gulf of Mexico). EIA's simulation results indicate a 58-percent probability of offshore natural gas production experiencing outages during the current hurricane season that are equal to or larger than the 32 Bcf of production shut in during the 2012 hurricane season.