Global coarse grain production in 2010/11 is projected to reach 1,083.5 million tons, down 5.1 million this month. While the U.S. decline is the largest single-country reduction, foreign production is down 3.0 million tons to 753.2 million.

Corn accounts for the largest part of the foreign production decline, down 2.4 million tons to 499.8 million. Oats, rye, and sorghum contribute to the overall reduction, but foreign barley production is projected up 0.5 million tons to 120.9 million. Argentina’s barley production is up 0.4 million tons to 2.3 million as favorably dry harvest conditions boost harvested area expectations and preliminary yield reports confirm an excellent crop. The UK reported a slightly larger barley crop, boosting EU production as well.

Argentina suffered dry, hot conditions during December and early January in some key, high-yielding corn areas, such as northern Buenos Aires, southern Santa Fe, Entre Rios, and parts of Cordoba. While much of the crop was not yet in the critical reproductive stage, enough of the crop was far enough along that yield prospects are reduced, dropping forecast production 1.5 million tons to 23.5 million.

In Indonesia, a second year of excessive rains is dampening corn yield prospects, reducing production 0.4 million tons to 8.0 million. Turkey reported lower-thanexpected corn yields, reducing production 10 percent to 3.6 million tons. Croatia reported reduced harvested area, more than offsetting increased yields, trimming production 0.1 million tons to 2.1 million. Excessive rains and flooding in Colombia reduced corn production prospects slightly. These reductions swamped a 0.1-million-ton increase for Russian corn based on better-than-expected yields for the drought-damaged crop.

Russia also reported low oats and rye yields, reducing rye production 0.4 million tons to 1.7 million and oats production 0.3 million tons to 3.2 million. The historical series for oats in Brazil was revised, and reduced area trimmed production. Brazil’s sorghum production is also reduced.

World coarse grain use in 2010/11 is forecast down 2.1 million tons this month to 1,122.9 million tons. Global feed use is cut 3.3 million tons, with the largest decline for U.S. corn. Foreign coarse grain consumption is cut 2.5 million tons, with a 1.1-million-ton reduction in feed use.

Foreign corn disappearance is down 1.8 million tons this month. South Korea corn use is down 0.5 million tons this month as it is expected to shift some corn feeding to wheat due to ample feed wheat supplies available from Australia and Canada. Turkey’s corn use is trimmed 0.3 million tons because of reduced production.

Indonesia’s corn use is trimmed 0.1 million tons with reduced production, while Russia is increased a like amount due to increased production. The largest reduction in world corn disappearance this month is caused by local marketing year exports being cut by almost 1 million tons more than local marketing year imports. This reduces apparent use.

Global oats and rye use are trimmed this month, mostly for Russia due to reduced production. Sorghum projected use is reduced slightly this month for Brazil and Mexico, but these are more than offset by the U.S. increase. World barley use is increased, mostly due to larger expected use in Ukraine, Brazil, Argentina, and Azerbaijan.

Global coarse grain ending stocks for 2010/11 are reduced 3.1 million tons this month to 158.8 million, with foreign stocks accounting for a decline of 0.9 million. The largest foreign change is for Australia, down 0.3 million tons for barley as export prospects are increased. Corn stocks prospects are reduced 0.2 million tons each for Canada, Turkey, and the Philippines. Imports for Turkey and the Philippines are reduced this month, while exports are increased for Canada. Sorghum ending stocks are trimmed 0.1 million tons each for Brazil and Mexico due to tighter supplies. These and smaller changes more than offset slightly increased stocks projected this month for Argentina, Brazil, China, and EU barley and for EU corn.

Forecast world coarse grain ending stocks for 2010/11 are down 20 percent from the previous year and are lower than in 18 of the previous 20 years. Although global coarse grain stocks in 2003/04 were lower than those forecast for 2010/11, the stocks as a share of use was 15.1 percent, higher than the 14.1 percent projected this year. In 2006/07, world coarse grain stocks were smaller, but the stocks as a share of use were 13.9 percent, not much lower than the 2010/11 projection.

Source: USDA/ERS