CHICAGO (Dow Jones) - U.S. soybean futures are poised for a lower start Friday, continuing to correct from recent highs on government data showing less threatening year-end supplies and broader based commodity weakness.
CBOT soybeans are called to open 7 cents to 9 cents lower.
In overnight trading, Chicago Board of Trade July soybeans were down 0.6% at $13.85 3/4 a bushel, and new crop November futures were down 0.6% at $13.79.
"Soybeans should see follow through selling on the open this morning after both old and new crop futures closed lower after failing to hold moves above $14," said Bryce Knorr, analyst with Farm Futures, a agricultural publication.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture's more optimistic view on soybean supplies in the current marketing year and next left the market a bit overpriced above $14 a bushel, analysts said.
The uncertainty of 2011 production and acreage continues to limit losses, but with slower export demand amid increased competition from South America, the market continues to struggle to hold prices near the $14 level.
The agency on Thursday made modest increases in estimated end-of-season inventories, with federal forecasters projecting U.S. soybean supplies at 180 million bushels at the end of the marketing year Aug. 31.
USDA tweaked export figures, as U.S. soybean export demand has softened in the past few months as foreign buyers turned to South America because of lower prices there.
The report encouraged traders to trim premium from the market after previously rallying prices on thoughts of lower supplies.
Traders are also expected to look beyond the soybean market to the outside markets for guidance, with a higher U.S. dollar index adding further pressure. A higher U.S. dollar is negative for commodities as most raw materials are dollar-denominated, making it more expensive for foreign buyers to import.
Broader based weakness is seen across the commodity sector, with lower corn, crude oil and gold futures expected to encourage investors to reduce risk exposure ahead of the weekend.
Yet, soybeans remain underpinned by supportive fundamentals, with end of year supplies still projected below the comfortable 200 million bushel level, and uncertainty still surrounding acreage in the eastern Midwest due to flooding.
The market will also draw support from concerns about the potential for lost acres in the western Midwest due to flooding issues around the Missouri River.
Strength in cash soymeal prices is expected to add further support to limit declines in soybeans.
Floods on the Missouri River and the potential for grain transportation interruptions support cash soymeal basis levels. Livestock feed producers in the western Midwest are aggressively pursuing cash feed supplies on the threat of reduced grain movement by rail and the potential for some soy crushing plants to shut down due to flooding, analysts said.