World wheat trade for 2010/11 projected down slightly

World wheat trade in 2010/11 is projected to be down slightly this month by 0.3 million tons to 125.3 million. EU-27 exports are cut 0.5 million tons to 21.5 million, while Canada’s forecast exports increase 0.5 million to 17.5 million. Despite a higher volume of accumulated wheat sales and export licenses on the year for the EU-27, tightening wheat supplies are expected to curb wheat exports later in the marketing year as domestic prices increase. The pace of Canadian wheat exports, on the other hand, supports the higher export projection, as Canada attempts to make the most of the world’s lower supplies of milling quality wheat.

Exports are also up 0.2 million tons to 1.0 million for Pakistan, where two straight years of record-high wheat output has resulted in a large exportable surplus. Government officials suggest that the country’s exports could reach 2-3 million tons. However, although sales to Bangladesh and Myanmar have been confirmed, the amount of exported wheat so far supports a 0.7 million tons projection for Pakistan’s May-April local marketing year, and 1.0 million tons for the July-June international trade year.

Ukraine’s wheat exports are reduced 0.5 million tons to 5.5 million, because of continuing uncertainty about the Government’s policy on export quotas. As of the end of January, Ukraine had exported about 3.0 million tons of wheat, and the current quotas allow another 0.5 million tons to be exported. Also, there is discussion that the Government might raise the wheat export quota by an additional 1.0 million tons.

The quotas currently are set for the first quarter of a year until March 31, and conflicting statements are being released about the future for grain export restrictions. Projected wheat imports for 2010/11 are little changed this month. For Bangladesh, wheat imports are expected to increase 0.5 million tons to 3.0 million, due to the pace of
confirmed purchases. At the same time, expected wheat imports are trimmed 0.3 million tons for Syria, 0.2 million tons each for Chile and Iraq based on the slow pace of purchases. Imports are reduced 0.1 million tons for Pakistan, reflecting large domestic supplies, with smaller reductions for Guatemala and Honduras.

U.S. exports projected for 2010/11 are unchanged this month at 1,300 million bushels for the June-May marketing year and 36.0 million tons for the July-June trade year. This is up nearly 12.0 million tons, or 50 percent on the year. For July through December 2010, U.S. Census data indicate exports of about 15.8 million tons, up 4.1 million (36 percent) from the previous year. Grain inspections for January 2011 were higher by almost 1.2 million tons compared with last year (almost 70 percent greater).

Outstanding export sales as of January 27, 2011 are up 4.6 million tons or nearly double compared with last year at this time.

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