Schwieterman: Higher corn yield estimate expected this month

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Corn                                      Estimated Fund Position
Trends – December Contract
Short Term:Down                  Net Long Futures and Options: -209491
Long Term: Down                  Change: +1500
Overnight Trade: Z +2 @7:30 AM


The corn was firmer overnight and it appears that the corn is back in consolidation mode. Yield reports remain good and thoughts are that we will see a higher yield estimate in the October supply and demand report. That is, if we have an October supply and demand report. Gains will be hard to hold as long as expectations are for higher yields. The falling Dollar may provide some bullish enthusiasm, but we have to see the export sales materialize before the weaker Dollar really matters, and right now we aren’t even getting any export sales reports. I’m still looking for $4.25 eventually.

Wheat                                    Estimated Fund Position
Trends – December Contract
Short Term: Up                      Net Long Futures and Options: -59219
Long Term:Up                        Change: +2000
Overnight Trade: Chicago: Z +5 KC: Z +2 @7:30 AM


The wheat market is still on the rise. The December KW has made eight consecutive positive closes and has moved through the 50% retracement of the last move down. The market is due for a correction, but we will eventually see a move up to the $7.70 level and maybe higher. Export sales have been good and the weakening Dollar will help to keep our wheat moving out of the country.

Soybeans                               Estimated Fund Position
Trends – November Contract
Short Term: Down                  Net Long Futures and Options: 86218
Long Term: Down                   Change: +5000
Overnight Trade: X +9 @7:30 AM


The soybeans are seeing a recovery and it is likely that the November contract moves up to the $12.90 - $12.95 area. There are fears that the yield estimate will be increased, which will cap rallies because higher production along with the higher beginning stocks will make the new crop ending stocks very comfortable. Fortunately we are still seeing good demand for beans and meal and we  probably don’t have to worry about a move much deeper than the August low.



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