Outlook

Domestic wheat situation and outlook: Winter wheat production estimates by class

HRW production is forecast to be down 256 million bushels (25 percent) from a year ago to 762 million bushels this year. The higher planted area for the 2011 crop has been more than offset by the higher abandonment rates and lower yields due to the severe drought on the central and southern plains. FULL STORY »

Domestic wheat situation and outlook: 2011 crop conditions vary widely across the country

The National Agricultural Statistical Service’s (NASS) May 9 Crop Progress reported that 33 percent of the winter wheat crop is rated good to excellent and 42 percent was rated poor to very poor. A year ago at this time, 66 percent of the winter wheat crop was rated good to excellent and only 8 percent was rated poor to very poor. FULL STORY »

Soybean production to increase slightly

With lower 2011/12 U.S. soybean supplies and higher South American soybean supplies on hand this fall, U.S. soybean exports are projected at 1.54 billion bushels, slightly below the 2010/11 level despite a projected increase in global import demand led by China. Ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected at 160 million bushels, down 10 million from 2010/11, leaving the stocks-to-use ratio at 4.8 percent. FULL STORY »

Corn stocks fall 15 percent, soybeans down slightly

Corn stocks in all positions on March 1, 2011 totaled 6.52 billion bushels, down 15 percent from March 1, 2010. Of the total stocks, 3.38 billion bushels are stored on farms, down 26 percent from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 3.14 billion bushels, are down slightly from a year ago. The December 2010 - February 2011 indicated disappearance is 3.53 billion bushels, compared with 3.21 billion bushels during the same period last year. FULL STORY »

Corn use prospects up in 2010/11

Domestic corn use is increased this month by 70 million bushels as demand remains strong in 2010/11 despite record-high corn farm prices. Leading the change is a 50-million-bushel increase in the projection of corn used for ethanol. FULL STORY »

Total wheat supply/utilization unchanged

U.S. wheat supply, use, and ending stocks projections for 2010/11 are unchanged this month. While the all-wheat projections are unchanged, several offsetting by-class adjustments are made to exports and domestic use. Exports of hard red winter (HRW) and white wheat are each projected 10 million bushels higher. FULL STORY »

Domestic wheat situation & outlook: 2010/11 supplies

Total projected supplies for 2010/11, at 3,294 million bushels, are unchanged from January. Supplies for 2010 are 301 million bushels above 2009/10. Sharply higher beginning stocks more than offset slightly lower production and projected imports year to year. FULL STORY »

World wheat trade for 2010/11 projected down slightly

World wheat trade in 2010/11 is projected to be down slightly this month by 0.3 million tons to 125.3 million. EU-27 exports are cut 0.5 million tons to 21.5 million, while Canada’s forecast exports increase 0.5 million to 17.5 million. Despite a higher volume of accumulated wheat sales and export licenses on the year for the EU-27, tightening wheat supplies are expected to curb wheat exports later in the marketing year as domestic prices increase. The pace of Canadian wheat exports, on the other hand, supports the higher export projection, as Canada attempts to make the most of the world’s lower supplies of milling quality wheat. FULL STORY »

Winter wheat crop conditions for selected states

Winter wheat conditions at the end of January on the Central and Southern Plains are not as favorable compared with this time a year ago because of the lack of soil moisture. On the Central Plains, 27 percent of the current Kansas wheat crop is rated good to excellent compared with 56 percent a year ago at this time. Thirty-seven percent of the current Kansas crop rated poor to very poor, up from 11 percent a year ago. FULL STORY »

Domestic wheat situation & outlook: 2010/11 price range

The projected range for the season-average price received by producers is narrowed at $5.60 to $5.80 per bushel from December’s range of $5.50 to $5.80 based on higher expected prices to date and expectations for the remainder of the marketing year. FULL STORY »

World wheat supplies nudge lower

Global wheat supplies are forecast slightly lower this month by 0.2 million tons. Global wheat production in 2010/11 is forecast down 0.4 million tons at 645.4 million tons. In Ukraine, final harvest reports indicate slightly lower-than-expected yield and a 0.35-million-ton reduction in wheat output, lowering the harvest to 16.85 million. South African 2010/11 wheat production is also slightly reduced 0.07 million tons to 1.51 million. FULL STORY »

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