Outlook

Domestic wheat situation and outlook: Projected 2011 spring production

Durum and other spring wheat production is projected at 619 million bushels, down 14 percent from 2010/11, based on 10-year harvested-to-planted ratios and State yield trends for 1985-2008. FULL STORY »

World wheat production to increase following FSU-12 recovery in 2011/2012

World wheat production in 2011/12 is projected to reach 669.6 million tons, up 21.4 million, or 3 percent from the previous year. Foreign wheat production is projected to increase 25.9 million tons, or 4 percent compared to 2010/11. FULL STORY »

Foreign wheat supplies, use, and stocks are up slightly

Foreign wheat beginning stocks for 2011/12 are forecast down 10.3 million tons to 159.4 million. This stocks decline partly offsets the projected 25.9-million-ton increase in production, and foreign wheat supplies are up 15.7 million tons year-to-year. FULL STORY »

2011/2012 wheat stocks down year-to-year

The 2011/2012 outlook for U.S. wheat is for reduced supplies with lower carrying and production than in 2010/2011. Beginning stocks for 2011/12 are down 14 percent from 2010/11, but remain the second-highest in a decade. FULL STORY »

Soybean production to increase slightly

With lower 2011/12 U.S. soybean supplies and higher South American soybean supplies on hand this fall, U.S. soybean exports are projected at 1.54 billion bushels, slightly below the 2010/11 level despite a projected increase in global import demand led by China. Ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected at 160 million bushels, down 10 million from 2010/11, leaving the stocks-to-use ratio at 4.8 percent. FULL STORY »

Corn stocks fall 15 percent, soybeans down slightly

Corn stocks in all positions on March 1, 2011 totaled 6.52 billion bushels, down 15 percent from March 1, 2010. Of the total stocks, 3.38 billion bushels are stored on farms, down 26 percent from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 3.14 billion bushels, are down slightly from a year ago. The December 2010 - February 2011 indicated disappearance is 3.53 billion bushels, compared with 3.21 billion bushels during the same period last year. FULL STORY »

World wheat supplies nudge lower

Global wheat supplies are forecast slightly lower this month by 0.2 million tons. Global wheat production in 2010/11 is forecast down 0.4 million tons at 645.4 million tons. In Ukraine, final harvest reports indicate slightly lower-than-expected yield and a 0.35-million-ton reduction in wheat output, lowering the harvest to 16.85 million. South African 2010/11 wheat production is also slightly reduced 0.07 million tons to 1.51 million. FULL STORY »

Domestic wheat situation & outlook: 2010/11 price range

The projected range for the season-average price received by producers is narrowed at $5.60 to $5.80 per bushel from December’s range of $5.50 to $5.80 based on higher expected prices to date and expectations for the remainder of the marketing year. FULL STORY »

Winter wheat crop conditions for selected states

Winter wheat conditions at the end of January on the Central and Southern Plains are not as favorable compared with this time a year ago because of the lack of soil moisture. On the Central Plains, 27 percent of the current Kansas wheat crop is rated good to excellent compared with 56 percent a year ago at this time. Thirty-seven percent of the current Kansas crop rated poor to very poor, up from 11 percent a year ago. FULL STORY »

World wheat trade for 2010/11 projected down slightly

World wheat trade in 2010/11 is projected to be down slightly this month by 0.3 million tons to 125.3 million. EU-27 exports are cut 0.5 million tons to 21.5 million, while Canada’s forecast exports increase 0.5 million to 17.5 million. Despite a higher volume of accumulated wheat sales and export licenses on the year for the EU-27, tightening wheat supplies are expected to curb wheat exports later in the marketing year as domestic prices increase. The pace of Canadian wheat exports, on the other hand, supports the higher export projection, as Canada attempts to make the most of the world’s lower supplies of milling quality wheat. FULL STORY »

Domestic wheat situation & outlook: 2010/11 supplies

Total projected supplies for 2010/11, at 3,294 million bushels, are unchanged from January. Supplies for 2010 are 301 million bushels above 2009/10. Sharply higher beginning stocks more than offset slightly lower production and projected imports year to year. FULL STORY »

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