Domestic wheat situation & outlook: 2010/11 supplies

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Total projected supplies for 2010/11, at 3,294 million bushels, are unchanged from January. Supplies for 2010 are 301 million bushels above 2009/10. Sharply higher beginning stocks more than offset slightly lower production and projected imports year to year.

Projected supplies of all wheat classes except soft red winter (SRW) wheat are up year to year for 2010/11. SRW supplies are down, mostly because of a large year-to-year production drop with both lower area and yields. The hard wheats, hard red winter (HRW) and hard red spring (HRS), have the largest year-to-year increases in 2010/11 supplies with their larger carryin stocks and higher production.

Projected 2010/11 carryin stocks of all classes are up year to year, with HRW’s 131- million-bushel increase leading the other classes. Projected all-wheat imports are unchanged from January. Projected imports for 2010/11 are down 9 million bushels year to year, as lower HRS and SRW imports more than offset higher durum imports.

All-wheat 2010 production is estimated at 2,208 million bushels, unchanged from January, but down 10 million bushels from 2009. All-wheat harvested area is estimated at 47.6 million acres, unchanged from January, and down 2.3 million acres from last year.

The U.S. all-wheat estimated yield is 46.4 bushels per acre, up 1.9 bushels from 2009. The 2010 yield is up 1.5 bushels per acre from the previous record high of 44.9 bushels in 2008.

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