Feed Outlook: Record Corn Crop Expected

Forecasted feed grain area planted in 2010, based on the March 31 Prospective Plantings, is up 1.7 percent from 2009. Acres to be planted in corn are expected to be up 2.7 percent. Total feed grain supplies for 2010/11 are forecast up 1.8 percent from 2009/10. Even with strong domestic use of feed grains, boosted by a 4.5-percent rise in corn used to make ethanol, ending stocks are expected to be up from 2009/10. With plentiful supplies of distillers’ grains from ethanol production in 2010/11, feed and residual use is expected lower at 142 million tons for the four feed grains, down from 143 million in 2009/10. Prices are expected to remain strong for all four feed grains but will be down from 2009/10.

Global coarse grain production in 2010/11 is projected to reach a record, up 2.5 percent from the previous year, with similar increases for area and yield. The largest year-toyear increase is for corn, up 26.5 million tons to 835.0 million, led by increased prospects for China. World coarse grain use in 2010/11 is also projected at a record, up 2.3 percent from the previous year. Foreign disappearance is projected up 2.6 percent, with foreign feed use growing 2.1 percent as the global economic recovery from recession supports increased meat demand. Expanded human consumption is projected for India and Sub-Saharan Africa. This implies that production will be larger than use for a fourth consecutive year, and that the build up in global stocks will be larger in 2010/11 than in 2009/10. Global coarse grain ending stocks are projected to exceed 200 million tons for the first time in more than a decade. World corn trade and U.S. corn exports are projected to expand in 2010/11, but U.S. market share is forecast down slightly.

Source: USDA/ERS – Feed Outlook

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