World Corn Trade Prospects Trimmed, U.S. Export Prospects Unchanged

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Global corn trade is projected at 92.0 million tons in 2010/11 (October-September), down 1.2 million this month. The largest reduction in projected imports is for Mexico, down 1.0 million tons to 8.1 million. Sluggish feed demand is expected to limit imports as growth in meat production is not as robust as previously expected. Canada’s corn imports are trimmed 0.2 million tons to 1.6 million because of record production. These declines are partly offset by small increases for Algeria, where corn feed use is growing, and the United States, with a record-large Canadian corn crop next door.

Corn export prospects are revised for several countries. Brazil’s 2010/11 October- September trade year exports are reduced 1.0 million tons to 8.0 million, but the March-February local marketing year export prospects are left unchanged at 7.0 million. This means a larger portion of Brazil’s local marketing year exports are expected to be shipped between October 2011 and February 2012. Serbia’s corn exports are cut 0.8 million tons this month to 1.7 million as logistical constraints are expected to limit exports despite the large crop. Mexico’s export prospects are reduced slightly as well. Partly offsetting these reductions are increased corn export prospects for India, up 0.5 million tons to 2.5 million, and for Canada, up 0.2 million to 0.5 million. Both countries are harvesting record large corn crops.

U.S. corn exports are forecast unchanged this month for 2010/11 at 50.0 million tons (1.95 billion bushels for the September-August local marketing year). Trade year 2010/11 corn exports are projected up less than 1 percent over those of the previous year. October 2010 corn exports were reported by Census at 3.4 million, slightly less than those of a year earlier, but November inspections were up 10 percent. Moreover, as of December 2, 2010, outstanding sales were 12.4 million tons, up from 10.1 million a year ago.



Global barley trade is reduced slightly this month as reduced production in Canada is expected to limit U.S. imports. Canada’s export prospects are trimmed 0.4 million tons to 1.0 million, but this is mostly offset by increased exports by Australia, with increased production prospects.

World sorghum trade for 2010/11 is forecast unchanged this month at 6.4 million tons. A small increase in EU imports is offset by a reduction in Mexico’s imports.

Source: USDA/ERS



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